Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsBalanced
Big Ten Conference10-3#4 (+12.59)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
90· A-Rating
81· BPer play
84· BConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
95· APer play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.197
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.107
Defensive EPA/play
-0.169
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
37.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.275
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.74
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#3
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#12
model 8 spots higher
50 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
33th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2022OA +0.201 / +0.122similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3742Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, run defense3703Clemson2017OA +0.135 / +0.278similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3664Clemson2018OA +0.138 / +0.273similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3655Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, passing offense361

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs West Virginia38-15W-20.5W50.25O
2vs Delaware63-7W-41.5W54.5O
3@ Illinois30-13W-14.5W48.5U
4vs Iowa31-0W-14.5W40U
5@ Northwestern41-13W-26.5W46O
7vs Massachusetts63-0W-42.5W56O
8@ Ohio State12-20L+4.0L46.5U
9vs Indiana33-24W-32.0L46O
10@ Maryland51-15W-10.0W51O
11vs Michigan15-24L+4.5L46U
12vs Rutgers27-6W-21.0W42.5U
13@ Michigan State42-0W----
18vs Ole Miss25-38L-4.0L48.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS9-2
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off90thRed Zone Off91th3rd Down Off60thPass Def90thRush Def99thRed Zone Def33th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11187th-0.17699th
Red Zone+0.25591th+0.04633th
Third Down+0.23660th+0.16951th
No Garbage Time+0.09981th-0.16295th
First Half+0.11178th-0.13293th
Second Half+0.11085th-0.21999th
Early Downs+0.06387th-0.24299th
Passing Downs+0.11370th-0.08990th
Standard Downs+0.11090th-0.23699th
Goal to Go+0.15279th-0.09063th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
16.8
Havoc Rate
27.6%
TO Margin
+1.2
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
399.8
Pts/Drive
2.83
3rd Down%
40.8%
3&Out%
19.7%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points471175
Points / Game36.213.5
First Downs
Total292181
Rushing13666
Passing13498
Penalty2217
Rushing
Attempts515434
Yards2,403982
Yards / Carry4.72.3
Yards / Game184.875.5
Touchdowns2610
Passing
Attempts413340
Completions246199
Completion %59.6%58.5%
Yards2,7952,237
Yards / Attempt6.86.6
Touchdowns3010
Interceptions212
Passer Rating139.41116.44
Total Offense
Plays928774
Yards5,1983,219
Yards / Play5.64.2
Yards / Game399.8247.6
Punt Returns
Returns3020
Yards33692
Average11.24.6
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1617
Yards372286
Average23.316.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5178
Yards2,3203,485
Average45.544.7
Interception Returns
Returns122
Yards1777
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1320
Lost612
Penalties
Penalties6571
Yards563550
Yards / Game43.342.3
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3227:28
Third Downs
Attempts184179
Conversions7554
Conversion %40.8%30.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2620
Conversions2011
Conversion %76.9%55.0%
Red Zone
Trips6424
Scores (TD + FG)6122
Score %95.3%91.7%
Touchdowns4913
TD %76.6%54.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2615
Made1911
Pct73.1%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5416
Made5416
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →