Fourth Down Data
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CLEM

Clemson

TigersBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference15-0#1 (+18.95)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

99· A+Overall
Offense
97· A+Rating
91· A-Per play
94· AConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
90· A-Red-zone D
88· B3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.138
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.273
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.140
Defensive EPA/play
-0.272
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.5%
Def Success Rate
38.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.412
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#13
model 12 spots higher
44 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Clemson ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
100th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
100th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio State2019OA +0.314 / +0.166similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4152Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, pass defense4093Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: run defense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4024Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3975Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate388

2018 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Furman48-7W+5.5W56.5O
2@ Texas A&M28-26W-12.0L50.5O
3vs Georgia Southern38-7W-31.5L50U
4@ Georgia Tech49-21W-16.0W55O
5vs Syracuse27-23W-24.5L64.5U
6@ Wake Forest63-3W-20.5W60O
8vs NC State41-7W-17.5W58U
9@ Florida State59-10W-18.0W49.5O
10vs Louisville77-16W-38.0W61O
11@ Boston College27-7W-17.5W51.5U
12vs Duke35-6W-29.5L59U
13vs South Carolina56-35W-25.5L58.5O
14@ Pittsburgh42-10W-27.0W53U
18vs Notre Dame30-3W----
19@ Alabama44-16W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
13-0
100.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off99thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off89thPass Def92thRush Def100thRed Zone Def91th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13995th-0.21198th
Red Zone+0.18088th-0.23891th
Third Down+0.26989th-0.31496th
No Garbage Time+0.13591th-0.281100th
First Half+0.13192th-0.296100th
Second Half+0.14992th-0.12191th
Early Downs+0.17898th-0.16197th
Passing Downs+0.03461th-0.22692th
Standard Downs+0.18599th-0.200100th
Goal to Go+0.39492th-0.49996th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.2%Rush 52.8%
Havoc/Game
17.9
Havoc Rate
25.9%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
527.2
Pts/Drive
3.14
3rd Down%
46.0%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 15 games — Clemson vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatClemsonOpponents
Scoring
Points664197
Points / Game44.313.1
First Downs
Total358235
Rushing15897
Passing180116
Penalty2022
Rushing
Attempts568576
Yards3,7231,444
Yards / Carry6.62.5
Yards / Game248.296.3
Touchdowns498
Passing
Attempts508447
Completions328238
Completion %64.6%53.2%
Yards4,1852,844
Yards / Attempt8.26.4
Touchdowns3713
Interceptions812
Passer Rating154.65110.92
Total Offense
Plays1,0761,023
Yards7,9084,288
Yards / Play7.34.2
Yards / Game527.2285.9
Punt Returns
Returns4217
Yards300121
Average7.17.1
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2032
Yards454657
Average22.720.5
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts66114
Yards2,6315,020
Average39.944.0
Interception Returns
Returns128
Yards32847
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1933
Lost912
Penalties
Penalties7398
Yards674779
Yards / Game44.951.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4531:14
Third Downs
Attempts202239
Conversions9368
Conversion %46.0%28.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1928
Conversions1110
Conversion %57.9%35.7%
Red Zone
Trips7536
Scores (TD + FG)6626
Score %88.0%72.2%
Touchdowns5715
TD %76.0%41.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1817
Made1213
Pct66.7%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts9022
Made8820
Pct97.8%90.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →