Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference14-2#1 (+16.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

99· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
97· A+Per play
96· AConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
96· APer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
41· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.088
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.071
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.176
Defensive EPA/play
-0.153
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.4%
Def Success Rate
41.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.329
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#1
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#3
model 2 spots higher
76 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
98th
Defensive EPA/play
97th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
85th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2024OA +0.060 / +0.030similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4652Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4593Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4384Washington2017OA +0.094 / +0.146similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate4345Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate432

2024 Schedule & Results

16 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Akron52-6W-48.5L58P
2vs Western Michigan56-0W-38.8W54.25O
4vs Marshall49-14W-40.0L52.5O
5@ Michigan State38-7W-23.5W48U
6vs Iowa35-7W-18.5W45U
7@ Oregon31-32L-3.5L53O
9vs Nebraska21-17W-25.5L48.5U
10@ Penn State20-13W-3.5W45U
11vs Purdue45-0W-38.0W53.5U
12@ Northwestern31-7W-28.5L44.5U
13vs Indiana38-15W-13.0W52O
14vs Michigan10-13L-21.0L43.5U
17vs Tennessee42-17W-7.5W46.5O
19@ Oregon41-21W-6.0W53.5U
20@ Texas28-14W----
21@ Notre Dame34-23W-9.0W45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-6
62.5%
O/U Record
7-8-1
46.7%
Straight Up
14-2
87.5%
Home ATS5-4
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS10-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off87thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off42thPass Def60thRush Def99thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def54th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13993th-0.13494th
Red Zone+0.24790th-0.45699th
Third Down+0.07142th+0.06254th
No Garbage Time+0.17598th-0.12890th
First Half+0.21799th-0.10380th
Second Half+0.05463th-0.16999th
Early Downs+0.09690th-0.16696th
Passing Downs+0.19891th-0.04960th
Standard Downs+0.11287th-0.18599th
Goal to Go+0.51099th-0.733100th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.0%Rush 54.0%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
25.8%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
429.4
Pts/Drive
3.38
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
15.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 16 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points571206
Points / Game35.712.9
First Downs
Total332241
Rushing13597
Passing183117
Penalty1427
Rushing
Attempts534530
Yards2,6621,402
Yards / Carry5.02.6
Yards / Game166.487.6
Touchdowns3413
Passing
Attempts455442
Completions325267
Completion %71.4%60.4%
Yards4,2082,672
Yards / Attempt9.26.0
Touchdowns3710
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating171.55114.13
Total Offense
Plays989972
Yards6,8704,074
Yards / Play6.94.2
Yards / Game429.4254.6
Punt Returns
Returns2411
Yards20471
Average8.56.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1511
Yards153176
Average10.216.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4987
Yards2,0423,674
Average41.742.2
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards148109
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1523
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties7259
Yards653467
Yards / Game40.829.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1829:42
Third Downs
Attempts185228
Conversions8180
Conversion %43.8%35.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2833
Conversions2015
Conversion %71.4%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips6238
Scores (TD + FG)5523
Score %88.7%60.5%
Touchdowns4716
TD %75.8%42.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1718
Made1312
Pct76.5%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7616
Made7616
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts08
Made05
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →