Fourth Down Data
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WASH

Washington

HuskiesBalanced
Big Ten Conference10-3#15 (+16.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
73· BRating
91· A-Per play
95· AConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
87· BPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
71· BRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.094
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.146
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.132
Defensive EPA/play
-0.166
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.5%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.298
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.065
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.36
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#23
model 8 spots higher
24 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
88th
Defensive havoc
85th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate4612Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate4343Notre Dame2023OA +0.085 / +0.178similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4284Miami2025OA +0.143 / +0.197similar: passing offense, run defense, rushing offense4155Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate394

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Rutgers30-14W+3.0L54.5O
2vs Montana63-7W-38.5W--
3vs Fresno State48-16W-34.5L56O
4@ Colorado37-10W-11.0W54.5U
5@ Oregon State42-7W-26.5W59U
6vs California38-7W-28.5W55.5U
7@ Arizona State7-13L-17.5L59.5U
9vs UCLA44-23W-18.0W59.5O
10vs Oregon38-3W-17.5W53U
11@ Stanford22-30L-7.0L50O
12vs Utah33-30W-17.5L47O
13vs Washington State41-14W-9.5W50O
18@ Penn State28-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off92thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off53thPass Def75thRush Def86thRed Zone Def72th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07280th-0.14284th
Red Zone+0.06767th-0.11972th
Third Down+0.01353th-0.17873th
No Garbage Time+0.11991th-0.15085th
First Half+0.06374th-0.13880th
Second Half+0.07981th-0.14783th
Early Downs+0.08489th-0.19194th
Passing Downs-0.02850th-0.12275th
Standard Downs+0.11692th-0.15386th
Goal to Go+0.18178th-0.06753th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
405.5
Pts/Drive
3.04
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWashingtonOpponents
Scoring
Points471209
Points / Game36.216.1
First Downs
Total271219
Rushing11693
Passing134115
Penalty2111
Rushing
Attempts473459
Yards2,3821,311
Yards / Carry5.02.9
Yards / Game183.2100.8
Touchdowns3711
Passing
Attempts348417
Completions240272
Completion %69.0%65.2%
Yards2,8892,563
Yards / Attempt8.36.1
Touchdowns1910
Interceptions515
Passer Rating153.84117.58
Total Offense
Plays821876
Yards5,2713,874
Yards / Play6.44.4
Yards / Game405.5298.0
Punt Returns
Returns2511
Yards45858
Average18.35.3
Touchdowns40
Kickoff Returns
Returns2765
Yards6081,218
Average22.518.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4673
Yards1,9172,962
Average41.740.6
Interception Returns
Returns155
Yards24342
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1522
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties5455
Yards445514
Yards / Game34.239.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3131:29
Third Downs
Attempts152201
Conversions6976
Conversion %45.4%37.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1220
Conversions613
Conversion %50.0%65.0%
Red Zone
Trips6028
Scores (TD + FG)5024
Score %83.3%85.7%
Touchdowns4015
TD %66.7%53.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2220
Made1314
Pct59.1%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6124
Made5823
Pct95.1%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →