Fourth Down Data
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IU

Indiana

HoosiersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference16-0#1 (+30.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

99· A+Overall
Offense
94· ARating
91· A-Per play
95· AConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
91· A-3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.139
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.239
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.135
Defensive EPA/play
-0.218
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.4%
Def Success Rate
36.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.353
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.030
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.85
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.72
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.85
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.22
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#4
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#52
model 51 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Indiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
100th
Points per drive
97th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2023OA +0.153 / +0.235similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate5732Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4833Washington2017OA +0.094 / +0.146similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate4624Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4385Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense433

2025 Schedule & Results

16 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Old Dominion27-14W-24.0L53U
2vs Kennesaw State56-9W-49.5W61.5O
3vs Indiana State73-0W----
4vs Illinois63-10W-7.0W51.5O
5@ Iowa20-15W-3.5W33.5O
7@ Oregon30-20W+3.5W46.5O
8vs Michigan State38-13W-27.5L56.5U
9vs UCLA56-6W-26.0W52.5O
10@ Maryland55-10W-31.0W61.5O
11@ Penn State27-24W-14.5L50O
12vs Wisconsin31-7W-29.0L44U
14@ Purdue56-3W----
15@ Ohio State13-10W+4.0W46U
19vs Alabama38-3W-3.0W49.5O
20vs Oregon56-22W----
21vs Miami27-21W-7.5L46.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
11-5
68.8%
O/U Record
12-4
75.0%
Straight Up
16-0
100.0%
Home ATS6-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS9-5
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off86thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off92thPass Def95thRush Def98thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16894th-0.20799th
Red Zone+0.13077th-0.30395th
Third Down+0.34292th-0.19395th
No Garbage Time+0.13993th-0.22799th
First Half+0.14992th-0.26298th
Second Half+0.18796th-0.14692th
Early Downs+0.08988th-0.19499th
Passing Downs+0.34499th-0.24595th
Standard Downs+0.10286th-0.18398th
Goal to Go+0.15172th-0.11665th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.1%Rush 61.9%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
28.1%
TO Margin
+1.4
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
452.0
Pts/Drive
3.29
3rd Down%
56.5%
3&Out%
15.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 16 games — Indiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIndianaOpponents
Scoring
Points666187
Points / Game41.611.7
First Downs
Total380211
Rushing18466
Passing170135
Penalty2610
Rushing
Attempts659413
Yards3,4061,235
Yards / Carry5.23.0
Yards / Game212.977.2
Touchdowns358
Passing
Attempts406487
Completions292302
Completion %71.9%62.0%
Yards3,8263,021
Yards / Attempt9.46.2
Touchdowns4610
Interceptions719
Passer Rating185.02113.09
Total Offense
Plays1,065900
Yards7,2324,256
Yards / Play6.84.7
Yards / Game452.0266.0
Punt Returns
Returns2518
Yards414126
Average16.67.0
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns1036
Yards208708
Average20.819.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4382
Yards1,8293,522
Average42.543.0
Interception Returns
Returns197
Yards122142
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles816
Lost111
Penalties
Penalties6065
Yards441559
Yards / Game27.634.9
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3826:30
Third Downs
Attempts200206
Conversions11362
Conversion %56.5%30.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1828
Conversions1014
Conversion %55.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips7727
Scores (TD + FG)7122
Score %92.2%81.5%
Touchdowns5610
TD %72.7%37.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2125
Made1917
Pct90.5%68.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts8718
Made8718
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →