Fourth Down Data
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MICH

Michigan

WolverinesRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference15-0#1 (+15.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

99· A+Overall
Offense
96· ARating
94· APer play
92· A-Consistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
96· AConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
92· A-Red-zone D
84· B3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.153
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.235
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.156
Defensive EPA/play
-0.241
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
40.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.397
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.068
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#2
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#14
model 13 spots higher
46 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
100th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
100th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
97th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate5762Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4343Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive EPA4234Washington2017OA +0.094 / +0.146similar: run defense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3915Georgia2021OA +0.166 / +0.333similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, TD drive rate385

2023 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs East Carolina30-3W-36.0L51.5U
2vs UNLV35-7W-38.0L58.5U
3vs Bowling Green31-6W-40.5L53.5U
4vs Rutgers31-7W-24.0P44U
5@ Nebraska45-7W-17.0W39O
6@ Minnesota52-10W-19.5W46O
7vs Indiana52-7W-33.5W46.5O
8@ Michigan State49-0W-24.0W47.5O
10vs Purdue41-13W-32.5L50.5O
11@ Penn State24-15W-4.5W46U
12@ Maryland31-24W-19.0L50O
13vs Ohio State30-24W-3.5W46O
14@ Iowa26-0W-21.5W35U
18vs Alabama27-20W-2.0W45O
19vs Washington34-13W-5.0W55.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5-1
64.3%
O/U Record
8-7
53.3%
Straight Up
15-0
100.0%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS9-5
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off85thRush Off82thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off84thPass Def99thRush Def96thRed Zone Def93th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12190th-0.211100th
Red Zone+0.11577th-0.22093th
Third Down+0.34884th-0.07095th
No Garbage Time+0.15193th-0.243100th
First Half+0.21894th-0.19598th
Second Half+0.01253th-0.22799th
Early Downs+0.05585th-0.19895th
Passing Downs+0.21585th-0.23299th
Standard Downs+0.07882th-0.19896th
Goal to Go+0.16180th+0.03844th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.1%Rush 60.9%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
23.2%
TO Margin
+1.3
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
382.7
Pts/Drive
3.23
3rd Down%
42.8%
3&Out%
22.6%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 15 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points538156
Points / Game35.910.4
First Downs
Total298199
Rushing12182
Passing159105
Penalty1812
Rushing
Attempts563450
Yards2,5361,350
Yards / Carry4.53.0
Yards / Game169.190.0
Touchdowns409
Passing
Attempts361415
Completions260229
Completion %72.0%55.2%
Yards3,2052,355
Yards / Attempt8.95.7
Touchdowns248
Interceptions518
Passer Rating165.77100.53
Total Offense
Plays924865
Yards5,7413,705
Yards / Play6.24.3
Yards / Game382.7247.0
Punt Returns
Returns2911
Yards29873
Average10.36.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1719
Yards251314
Average14.816.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5380
Yards2,3463,603
Average44.345.0
Interception Returns
Returns185
Yards41951
Touchdowns40
Fumbles
Fumbles1220
Lost39
Penalties
Penalties4576
Yards412605
Yards / Game27.540.3
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1427:46
Third Downs
Attempts173196
Conversions7457
Conversion %42.8%29.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2234
Conversions1711
Conversion %77.3%32.4%
Red Zone
Trips6625
Scores (TD + FG)5918
Score %89.4%72.0%
Touchdowns4711
TD %71.2%44.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2118
Made1813
Pct85.7%72.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6815
Made6615
Pct97.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →