Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference12-2#2 (+30.17)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
97· A+Rating
93· APer play
98· A+Consistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
94· AConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.173
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.241
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.150
Defensive EPA/play
-0.237
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.8%
Def Success Rate
40.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.386
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.154
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.77
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.49
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#1
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#3
model 1 spots higher
76 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
99th
Offensive success rate
100th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
86th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2024OA +0.060 / +0.030similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA5372Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4603Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4434Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense4365Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate427

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Texas14-7W-1.0W47U
2vs Grambling State70-0W-65.5W68.5O
3vs Ohio37-9W-28.5L49.5U
5@ Washington24-6W-11.5W34.5U
6vs Minnesota42-3W-23.5W43O
7@ Illinois34-16W-14.5W50.5U
8@ Wisconsin34-0W-29.5W35.5U
10vs Penn State38-14W-19.0W45O
11@ Purdue34-10W-29.5L48.5U
12vs UCLA48-10W-34.0W47O
13vs Rutgers42-9W-31.5W55.5U
14@ Michigan27-9W-10.0W43.5U
15vs Indiana10-13L-4.0L46U
19vs Miami14-24L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
4-10
28.6%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS6-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS10-4
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off94thRed Zone Off64th3rd Down Off87thPass Def94thRush Def93thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def90th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16793th-0.17996th
Red Zone+0.06364th-0.31696th
Third Down+0.30187th-0.16190th
No Garbage Time+0.14593th-0.24799th
First Half+0.14389th-0.27899th
Second Half+0.19297th-0.06871th
Early Downs+0.12295th-0.12788th
Passing Downs+0.27295th-0.24294th
Standard Downs+0.13394th-0.14293th
Goal to Go-0.04845th-0.40290th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
21.5%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
422.6
Pts/Drive
3.16
3rd Down%
53.3%
3&Out%
6.8%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points468130
Points / Game33.49.3
First Downs
Total317184
Rushing12176
Passing18088
Penalty1620
Rushing
Attempts475425
Yards2,1611,251
Yards / Carry4.52.9
Yards / Game154.489.4
Touchdowns255
Passing
Attempts408342
Completions313208
Completion %76.7%60.8%
Yards3,7551,816
Yards / Attempt9.25.3
Touchdowns337
Interceptions88
Passer Rating176.79107.50
Total Offense
Plays883767
Yards5,9163,067
Yards / Play6.74.0
Yards / Game422.6219.1
Punt Returns
Returns203
Yards2119
Average10.63.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns816
Yards202266
Average25.316.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3070
Yards1,2743,134
Average42.544.8
Interception Returns
Returns88
Yards5091
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles711
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties5850
Yards544395
Yards / Game38.928.2
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0726:51
Third Downs
Attempts152176
Conversions8154
Conversion %53.3%30.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1728
Conversions1211
Conversion %70.6%39.3%
Red Zone
Trips6927
Scores (TD + FG)6018
Score %87.0%66.7%
Touchdowns4610
TD %66.7%37.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2017
Made1614
Pct80.0%82.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6011
Made6010
Pct100.0%90.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →