Fourth Down Data
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IU

Indiana

HoosiersBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#10 (+8.93)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
97· A+Rating
95· APer play
98· A+Consistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
71· BRating
79· BPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
90· A-3rd down O
79· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.060
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.153
Defensive EPA/play
-0.090
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.7%
Def Success Rate
41.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.243
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.110
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#13
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#50
model 40 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Indiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA5372Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4653Ohio State2019OA +0.314 / +0.166similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate4234Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, run defense3905Utah2019OA +0.097 / +0.176similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense390

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida International31-7W-21.5W51.5U
2vs Western Illinois77-3W----
3@ UCLA42-13W-3.0W46O
4vs Charlotte52-14W-28.5W48.5O
5vs Maryland42-28W-7.0W52O
6@ Northwestern41-24W-13.5W41.5O
8vs Nebraska56-7W-6.5W50.5O
9vs Washington31-17W-6.5W53U
10@ Michigan State47-10W-7.5W51.5O
11vs Michigan20-15W-14.0L48.5U
13@ Ohio State15-38L+13.0L52O
14vs Purdue66-0W-29.0W56.5O
17@ Notre Dame17-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS7-1
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS10-1
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off94thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off91thPass Def93thRush Def95thRed Zone Def92th3rd Down Def80th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16498th-0.16099th
Red Zone+0.37198th-0.23492th
Third Down+0.32091th-0.05480th
No Garbage Time+0.15296th-0.09583th
First Half+0.17693th-0.12187th
Second Half+0.15094th-0.198100th
Early Downs+0.13595th-0.14995th
Passing Downs+0.22696th-0.18593th
Standard Downs+0.13794th-0.14695th
Goal to Go+0.24885th+0.08737th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.4%Rush 57.6%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
25.0%
TO Margin
+1.2
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
426.4
Pts/Drive
3.23
3rd Down%
47.2%
3&Out%
16.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Indiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIndianaOpponents
Scoring
Points537203
Points / Game41.315.6
First Downs
Total306192
Rushing13068
Passing155104
Penalty2120
Rushing
Attempts491381
Yards2,1461,043
Yards / Carry4.42.7
Yards / Game165.180.2
Touchdowns3712
Passing
Attempts361397
Completions246248
Completion %68.1%62.5%
Yards3,3972,289
Yards / Attempt9.45.8
Touchdowns3311
Interceptions615
Passer Rating174.03112.49
Total Offense
Plays852778
Yards5,5433,332
Yards / Play6.54.3
Yards / Game426.4256.3
Punt Returns
Returns2810
Yards325121
Average11.612.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns641
Yards127804
Average21.219.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3662
Yards1,5282,701
Average42.443.6
Interception Returns
Returns156
Yards21865
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1016
Lost39
Penalties
Penalties6276
Yards571584
Yards / Game43.944.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4229:18
Third Downs
Attempts144168
Conversions6855
Conversion %47.2%32.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2232
Conversions1310
Conversion %59.1%31.3%
Red Zone
Trips6932
Scores (TD + FG)6426
Score %92.8%81.3%
Touchdowns5518
TD %79.7%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1114
Made1012
Pct90.9%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6923
Made6923
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →