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UTAH
Utah
UtesRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference11-3#18 (+15.69)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
91· A-Per play
92· A-Consistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
91· A-Rating
94· APer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
89· B3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.097
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.176
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.141
Defensive EPA/play
-0.172
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.0%
Def Success Rate
40.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.313
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.82
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#16
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#41
model 23 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Utah ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense82th
Opp-adjusted defense97th
Offensive EPA/play92th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate90th
Explosiveness89th
Defensive havoc91th
Points per drive90th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, run defense4162Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: turnover rate, passing offense, havoc rate3963Indiana2024OA +0.060 / +0.030similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense3904Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: defensive success rate, run defense, passing offense3805Utah State2018OA +0.052 / +0.107similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate375
2019 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ BYU | 30-12 | W | -7.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 2 | vs Northern Illinois | 35-17 | W | -23.0 | L | 45 | O |
| 3 | vs Idaho State | 31-0 | W | -37.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 4 | @ USC | 23-30 | L | -3.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Washington State | 38-13 | W | -5.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Oregon State | 52-7 | W | -14.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 8 | vs Arizona State | 21-3 | W | -16.0 | W | 46 | U |
| 9 | vs California | 35-0 | W | -21.0 | W | 36.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Washington | 33-28 | W | -3.5 | W | 48 | O |
| 12 | vs UCLA | 49-3 | W | -21.0 | W | 52 | P |
| 13 | @ Arizona | 35-7 | W | -24.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Colorado | 45-15 | W | -28.0 | W | 49 | O |
| 15 | @ Oregon | 15-37 | L | -6.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 19 | @ Texas | 10-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
4-8-1
33.3%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS8-5
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.088 | 83th | -0.167 | 96th |
| Red Zone | +0.088 | 70th | -0.415 | 98th |
| Third Down | +0.250 | 90th | +0.019 | 50th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.144 | 92th | -0.176 | 95th |
| First Half | +0.169 | 93th | -0.154 | 92th |
| Second Half | +0.005 | 49th | -0.181 | 99th |
| Early Downs | +0.051 | 73th | -0.164 | 96th |
| Passing Downs | +0.331 | 99th | -0.130 | 86th |
| Standard Downs | -0.012 | 43th | -0.191 | 97th |
| Goal to Go | -0.072 | 44th | -0.253 | 77th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.2%Rush 64.8%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
23.0%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
429.0
Pts/Drive
2.82
3rd Down%
46.3%
3&Out%
13.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 14 games — Utah vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Utah | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 452 | 210 |
| Points / Game | 32.3 | 15.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 301 | 208 |
| Rushing | 147 | 71 |
| Passing | 125 | 116 |
| Penalty | 29 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 591 | 377 |
| Yards | 2,819 | 1,145 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Yards / Game | 201.4 | 81.8 |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 321 | 436 |
| Completions | 233 | 247 |
| Completion % | 72.6% | 56.7% |
| Yards | 3,187 | 2,624 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.9 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 174.05 | 112.89 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 912 | 813 |
| Yards | 6,006 | 3,769 |
| Yards / Play | 6.6 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 429.0 | 269.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 11 |
| Yards | 249 | 135 |
| Average | 9.6 | 12.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 33 |
| Yards | 176 | 630 |
| Average | 17.6 | 19.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 77 |
| Yards | 1,800 | 3,393 |
| Average | 40.0 | 44.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 4 |
| Yards | 273 | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 18 |
| Lost | 9 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 103 | 85 |
| Yards | 862 | 727 |
| Yards / Game | 61.6 | 51.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:20 | 25:40 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 175 | 176 |
| Conversions | 81 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 46.3% | 30.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 22 |
| Conversions | 11 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 44.0% | 54.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 31 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 23 |
| Score % | 85.5% | 74.2% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 14 |
| TD % | 67.3% | 45.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 15 |
| Made | 11 | 11 |
| Pct | 73.3% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 58 | 23 |
| Made | 57 | 23 |
| Pct | 98.3% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.