Fourth Down Data
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PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference13-3#5 (+10.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

96· AOverall
Offense
95· ARating
95· APer play
95· AConsistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
96· ARating
82· BPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.162
Defensive EPA/play
-0.100
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.7%
Def Success Rate
42.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.262
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.149
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.40
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#9
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#11
model 6 spots higher
54 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2025OA +0.139 / +0.239similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4832Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4593Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4414Michigan2023OA +0.153 / +0.235similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4345Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense431

2024 Schedule & Results

16 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ West Virginia34-12W-8.0W51.5U
2vs Bowling Green34-27W-32.0L49.5O
4vs Kent State56-0W-49.0W55.5O
5vs Illinois21-7W-18.0L47.5U
6vs UCLA27-11W-27.8L46.5U
7@ USC33-30W-5.5L50O
9@ Wisconsin28-13W-6.5W48U
10vs Ohio State13-20L+3.5L45U
11vs Washington35-6W-13.5W46.5U
12@ Purdue49-10W-28.5W50.5O
13@ Minnesota26-25W-11.5L45O
14vs Maryland44-7W-24.5W50O
15@ Oregon37-45L+3.5L50.5O
17vs SMU38-10W-8.5W54U
19@ Boise State31-14W+1.0L45O
20vs Notre Dame24-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-8
50.0%
O/U Record
8-8
50.0%
Straight Up
13-3
81.3%
Home ATS4-5
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS8-5
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off90thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off72thPass Def81thRush Def77thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14695th-0.09184th
Red Zone+0.21287th-0.30096th
Third Down+0.19772th-0.06081th
No Garbage Time+0.16196th-0.09582th
First Half+0.14390th-0.11784th
Second Half+0.14993th-0.06379th
Early Downs+0.12893th-0.10181th
Passing Downs+0.20293th-0.11281th
Standard Downs+0.12390th-0.07977th
Goal to Go+0.17870th-0.35793th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.5%Rush 58.5%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
23.9%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
430.2
Pts/Drive
2.78
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
15.5%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 16 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points530264
Points / Game33.116.5
First Downs
Total367282
Rushing168115
Passing177141
Penalty2226
Rushing
Attempts615534
Yards3,2371,630
Yards / Carry5.33.1
Yards / Game202.3101.9
Touchdowns3510
Passing
Attempts437475
Completions292285
Completion %66.8%60.0%
Yards3,6463,086
Yards / Attempt8.36.5
Touchdowns3018
Interceptions1020
Passer Rating154.98118.66
Total Offense
Plays1,0521,009
Yards6,8834,716
Yards / Play6.54.7
Yards / Game430.2294.8
Punt Returns
Returns2311
Yards13678
Average5.97.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1827
Yards382515
Average21.219.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5373
Yards2,2133,166
Average41.843.4
Interception Returns
Returns2010
Yards310117
Touchdowns40
Fumbles
Fumbles1316
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties8570
Yards804542
Yards / Game50.333.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2229:38
Third Downs
Attempts194218
Conversions8981
Conversion %45.9%37.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2527
Conversions1815
Conversion %72.0%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips6641
Scores (TD + FG)5929
Score %89.4%70.7%
Touchdowns4817
TD %72.7%41.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2329
Made1722
Pct73.9%75.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6626
Made6526
Pct98.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →