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OSU
Ohio State
BuckeyesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference13-1#1 (+43.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
99· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
97· A+Per play
95· AConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
95· APer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.314
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.166
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.204
Defensive EPA/play
-0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.9%
Def Success Rate
38.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.377
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.057
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.63
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.43
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.42
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#3
model 2 spots higher
64 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense100th
Opp-adjusted defense96th
Offensive EPA/play98th
Defensive EPA/play96th
Offensive success rate96th
Explosiveness88th
Defensive havoc100th
Points per drive99th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate4382Indiana2024OA +0.060 / +0.030similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate4233Clemson2018OA +0.138 / +0.273similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, defensive success rate4154Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4075Clemson2019OA +0.120 / +0.254similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense400
2019 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Florida Atlantic | 45-21 | W | +3.0 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Cincinnati | 42-0 | W | -14.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 3 | @ Indiana | 51-10 | W | -17.0 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Miami (OH) | 76-5 | W | -38.5 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Nebraska | 48-7 | W | -17.0 | W | 66 | U |
| 6 | vs Michigan State | 34-10 | W | -19.0 | W | 51 | U |
| 8 | @ Northwestern | 52-3 | W | -26.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 9 | vs Wisconsin | 38-7 | W | -14.5 | W | 47 | U |
| 11 | vs Maryland | 73-14 | W | -43.5 | W | 66 | O |
| 12 | @ Rutgers | 56-21 | W | -54.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Penn State | 28-17 | W | -20.0 | L | 59 | U |
| 14 | @ Michigan | 56-27 | W | -9.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 15 | @ Wisconsin | 34-21 | W | -17.0 | L | 58 | U |
| 18 | vs Clemson | 23-29 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
12-1
92.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS9-3
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.178 | 97th | -0.172 | 98th |
| Red Zone | +0.236 | 92th | -0.266 | 89th |
| Third Down | +0.475 | 99th | -0.263 | 96th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.212 | 98th | -0.194 | 98th |
| First Half | +0.236 | 99th | -0.223 | 96th |
| Second Half | +0.112 | 86th | -0.119 | 90th |
| Early Downs | +0.164 | 99th | -0.101 | 86th |
| Passing Downs | +0.166 | 85th | -0.270 | 98th |
| Standard Downs | +0.184 | 99th | -0.105 | 84th |
| Goal to Go | +0.016 | 53th | -1.199 | 99th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.0%Rush 62.0%
Havoc/Game
18.9
Havoc Rate
28.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
529.9
Pts/Drive
3.63
3rd Down%
55.2%
3&Out%
9.2%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 14 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ohio State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 656 | 192 |
| Points / Game | 46.9 | 13.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 397 | 217 |
| Rushing | 192 | 99 |
| Passing | 172 | 89 |
| Penalty | 33 | 29 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 663 | 488 |
| Yards | 3,735 | 1,452 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.6 | 3.0 |
| Yards / Game | 266.8 | 103.7 |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 406 | 393 |
| Completions | 271 | 200 |
| Completion % | 66.7% | 50.9% |
| Yards | 3,684 | 2,184 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.1 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 48 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 180.51 | 97.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,069 | 881 |
| Yards | 7,419 | 3,636 |
| Yards / Play | 6.9 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 529.9 | 259.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 12 |
| Yards | 212 | 36 |
| Average | 7.3 | 3.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 43 |
| Yards | 283 | 770 |
| Average | 21.8 | 17.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 102 |
| Yards | 2,050 | 4,159 |
| Average | 43.6 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 3 |
| Yards | 179 | 37 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 20 |
| Lost | 13 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 76 |
| Yards | 770 | 665 |
| Yards / Game | 55.0 | 47.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:47 | 27:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 206 |
| Conversions | 101 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 55.2% | 29.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 20 |
| Conversions | 8 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 61.5% | 35.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 75 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 67 | 19 |
| Score % | 89.3% | 65.5% |
| Touchdowns | 59 | 12 |
| TD % | 78.7% | 41.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 13 |
| Made | 13 | 9 |
| Pct | 86.7% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 88 | 20 |
| Made | 87 | 19 |
| Pct | 98.9% | 95.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.