Fourth Down Data
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WAKE

Wake Forest

Demon DeaconsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#24 (+6.81)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

82· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
74· BPer play
34· DConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
54· CPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.220
Defensive EPA/play
-0.138
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
50.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.359
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Wake Forest ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
58th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
37th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
76th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3522New Mexico State2026OA +0.004 / -0.054similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate3403Illinois2024OA +0.023 / -0.006similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3314Toledo2018OA +0.098 / -0.100similar: pass defense, run defense, offensive EPA3295Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA329

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Akron38-16W-25.0L48.5O
2@ Purdue------
3vs Miami------
4@ Louisville------
5vs Stanford------
6@ NC State------
7@ California------
9vs Virginia------
10vs Merrimack------
11@ SMU------
12@ Georgia Tech------
13vs Duke------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off77thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off56thPass Def23thRush Def35thRed Zone Def24th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08961th+0.05828th
Red Zone-0.46112th+0.40324th
Third Down+0.18056th+0.02341th
No Garbage Time+0.16169th-0.16558th
First Half+0.22073th-0.13854th
Second Half-0.10933th+0.20920th
Early Downs+0.06960th+0.03927th
Passing Downs-0.00644th+0.25223th
Standard Downs+0.15677th-0.01135th
Goal to Go-0.40714th+0.24858th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.5%Rush 48.5%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
9.0
Yards/Game
559.0
Pts/Drive
4.50
3rd Down%
46.7%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Wake Forest vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWake ForestOpponents
Scoring
Points3816
Points / Game38.016.0
First Downs
Total2020
Rushing812
Passing105
Penalty23
Rushing
Attempts3336
Yards203149
Yards / Carry6.24.1
Yards / Game203.0149.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts3533
Completions2228
Completion %62.9%84.8%
Yards356156
Yards / Attempt10.24.7
Touchdowns32
Interceptions00
Passer Rating176.58144.56
Total Offense
Plays6869
Yards559305
Yards / Play8.24.4
Yards / Game559.0305.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards440
Average22.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards170
Average17.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts25
Yards98224
Average49.044.8
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties115
Yards11535
Yards / Game115.035.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2430:36
Third Downs
Attempts1513
Conversions76
Conversion %46.7%46.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips53
Scores (TD + FG)43
Score %80.0%100.0%
Touchdowns12
TD %20.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts41
Made31
Pct75.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts32
Made31
Pct100.0%50.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →