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ALA
Alabama
Crimson TideBalancedSoutheastern Conference11-2#1 (+16.60)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
99· A+Overall
Offense
95· ARating
93· APer play
78· BConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
84· BPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.176
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.135
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.156
Defensive EPA/play
-0.118
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.274
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.065
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.24
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+4.56
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.54
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.79
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.93
own return game
Return Defense
+1.30
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#1
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#5
model 4 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#3
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#1
model & recruiting agree
87 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense94th
Opp-adjusted defense92th
Offensive EPA/play94th
Defensive EPA/play85th
Offensive success rate86th
Explosiveness76th
Defensive havoc82th
Points per drive94th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: havoc rate, run defense, TD drive rate4222Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate4093Georgia2023OA +0.182 / +0.099similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense4084Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3975Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense374
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah State | 55-0 | W | -41.5 | W | 62 | U |
| 2 | @ Texas | 20-19 | W | -17.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 3 | vs UL Monroe | 63-7 | W | -49.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Vanderbilt | 55-3 | W | -40.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Arkansas | 49-26 | W | -17.3 | W | 61 | O |
| 6 | vs Texas A&M | 24-20 | W | -24.0 | L | 48 | U |
| 7 | @ Tennessee | 49-52 | L | -7.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Mississippi State | 30-6 | W | -21.0 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 10 | @ LSU | 31-32 | L | -13.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 11 | @ Ole Miss | 30-24 | W | -11.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Austin Peay | 34-0 | W | -34.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Auburn | 49-27 | W | -22.0 | P | 49 | O |
| 18 | @ Kansas State | 45-20 | W | -6.5 | W | 56 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LLLPW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.134 | 93th | -0.120 | 87th |
| Red Zone | +0.086 | 69th | -0.255 | 90th |
| Third Down | +0.326 | 87th | +0.013 | 61th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.151 | 93th | -0.119 | 86th |
| First Half | +0.164 | 93th | -0.155 | 89th |
| Second Half | +0.104 | 85th | -0.082 | 77th |
| Early Downs | +0.041 | 75th | -0.121 | 87th |
| Passing Downs | +0.339 | 99th | -0.071 | 73th |
| Standard Downs | +0.033 | 68th | -0.148 | 92th |
| Goal to Go | +0.038 | 62th | -0.339 | 86th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.9%Rush 51.1%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
477.2
Pts/Drive
3.24
3rd Down%
45.7%
3&Out%
16.0%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Alabama | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 534 | 236 |
| Points / Game | 41.1 | 18.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 310 | 241 |
| Rushing | 121 | 93 |
| Passing | 164 | 114 |
| Penalty | 25 | 34 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 457 | 467 |
| Yards | 2,544 | 1,695 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 195.7 | 130.4 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 438 | 434 |
| Completions | 280 | 238 |
| Completion % | 63.9% | 54.8% |
| Yards | 3,660 | 2,442 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 158.34 | 108.00 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 895 | 901 |
| Yards | 6,204 | 4,137 |
| Yards / Play | 6.9 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 477.2 | 318.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 12 |
| Yards | 457 | 77 |
| Average | 16.9 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 34 |
| Yards | 372 | 593 |
| Average | 17.7 | 17.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 84 |
| Yards | 1,861 | 3,444 |
| Average | 41.4 | 41.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 8 |
| Yards | 74 | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 12 |
| Lost | 8 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 103 | 87 |
| Yards | 893 | 663 |
| Yards / Game | 68.7 | 51.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:57 | 30:03 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 162 | 198 |
| Conversions | 74 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 45.7% | 30.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 26 |
| Conversions | 9 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 38.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 64 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 57 | 33 |
| Score % | 89.1% | 76.7% |
| Touchdowns | 44 | 20 |
| TD % | 68.8% | 46.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 19 |
| Made | 22 | 16 |
| Pct | 84.6% | 84.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 64 | 23 |
| Made | 64 | 22 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.