Fourth Down Data
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MIA

Miami

HurricanesBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference13-3#7 (+24.28)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
89· BRating
76· BPer play
85· BConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
94· APer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.143
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.197
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.076
Defensive EPA/play
-0.157
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
40.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.233
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#14
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#11
model 4 spots higher
55 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
95th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Houston2021OA +0.063 / +0.097similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive success rate4172Fresno State2018OA +0.015 / +0.140similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, takeaway rate4163Washington2017OA +0.094 / +0.146similar: passing offense, run defense, rushing offense4154Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA4115Notre Dame2023OA +0.085 / +0.178similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate386

2025 Schedule & Results

16 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Notre Dame27-24W+3.0W50.5O
2vs Bethune-Cookman45-3W-54.0L64U
3vs South Florida49-12W-22.5W56.5O
4vs Florida26-7W-8.0W51U
6@ Florida State28-22W-3.5W54.5U
8vs Louisville21-24L----
9vs Stanford42-7W-29.5W45.5O
10@ SMU20-26L-10.5L50.5U
11vs Syracuse38-10W-27.5W36.5O
12vs NC State41-7W-27.5W50.5U
13@ Virginia Tech34-17W-18.0L48.5O
14@ Pittsburgh38-7W-7.0W49.5U
17@ Texas A&M10-3W+3.5W48U
19@ Ohio State24-14W-3.0W53O
20@ Ole Miss31-27W----
21@ Indiana21-27L+7.5W46.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
12-4
75.0%
O/U Record
7-9
43.8%
Straight Up
13-3
81.3%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS6-2
Favorite ATS8-4
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off93thRed Zone Off97th3rd Down Off53thPass Def91thRush Def84thRed Zone Def53th3rd Down Def87th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08779th-0.13793th
Red Zone+0.30797th-0.02953th
Third Down+0.09553th-0.14887th
No Garbage Time+0.07276th-0.16093th
First Half+0.02859th-0.25397th
Second Half+0.14789th-0.03157th
Early Downs+0.08387th-0.10181th
Passing Downs-0.01352th-0.19791th
Standard Downs+0.13193th-0.10084th
Goal to Go+0.32691th-0.13267th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
23.5%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
405.0
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
46.0%
3&Out%
15.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 16 games — Miami vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiamiOpponents
Scoring
Points495237
Points / Game30.914.8
First Downs
Total348274
Rushing14095
Passing187149
Penalty2130
Rushing
Attempts567484
Yards2,4291,428
Yards / Carry4.33.0
Yards / Game151.889.3
Touchdowns2812
Passing
Attempts495521
Completions355312
Completion %71.7%59.9%
Yards4,0513,278
Yards / Attempt8.26.3
Touchdowns3213
Interceptions1216
Passer Rating156.95114.83
Total Offense
Plays1,0621,005
Yards6,4804,706
Yards / Play6.14.7
Yards / Game405.0294.1
Punt Returns
Returns2413
Yards30759
Average12.84.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns178
Yards368154
Average21.619.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5580
Yards2,3983,584
Average43.644.8
Interception Returns
Returns1612
Yards30647
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1117
Lost39
Penalties
Penalties11272
Yards916589
Yards / Game57.336.8
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0426:05
Third Downs
Attempts198211
Conversions9166
Conversion %46.0%31.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2329
Conversions1615
Conversion %69.6%51.7%
Red Zone
Trips6336
Scores (TD + FG)5629
Score %88.9%80.6%
Touchdowns4319
TD %68.3%52.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2523
Made1818
Pct72.0%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6121
Made6121
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →