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HOU
Houston
CougarsBalancedBig 12 Conference12-2#14 (+8.08)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
89· BOverall
Offense
76· BRating
63· CPer play
54· CConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
88· BPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
97· A+Red-zone D
86· B3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.097
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.043
Defensive EPA/play
-0.121
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.164
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.110
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.57
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.67
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.47
own return game
Return Defense
-1.31
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#14
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 58 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense72th
Opp-adjusted defense89th
Offensive EPA/play63th
Defensive EPA/play89th
Offensive success rate59th
Explosiveness64th
Defensive havoc93th
Points per drive76th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Miami2025OA +0.143 / +0.197similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive success rate4172Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense4113TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: run defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate4104South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4005Florida Atlantic2019OA +0.030 / +0.087similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate398
2021 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Texas Tech | 21-38 | L | +1.5 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Rice | 44-7 | W | -9.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 3 | vs Grambling State | 45-0 | W | -40.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Navy | 28-20 | W | +4.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Tulsa | 45-10 | W | -6.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 6 | @ Tulane | 40-22 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs East Carolina | 31-24 | W | -13.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 9 | vs SMU | 44-37 | W | -0.3 | W | 62 | O |
| 10 | @ South Florida | 54-42 | W | -13.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 11 | @ Temple | 37-8 | W | -9.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Memphis | 31-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ UConn | 45-17 | W | -32.3 | L | 56 | O |
| 14 | @ Cincinnati | 20-35 | L | +10.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 18 | @ Auburn | 17-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.038 | 61th | -0.143 | 93th |
| Red Zone | +0.199 | 94th | -0.399 | 98th |
| Third Down | +0.291 | 86th | -0.275 | 97th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.047 | 65th | -0.119 | 89th |
| First Half | +0.091 | 78th | -0.075 | 69th |
| Second Half | -0.018 | 40th | -0.212 | 98th |
| Early Downs | -0.028 | 39th | -0.061 | 68th |
| Passing Downs | +0.159 | 90th | -0.179 | 86th |
| Standard Downs | -0.027 | 37th | -0.121 | 91th |
| Goal to Go | +0.051 | 64th | -0.441 | 90th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.1%Rush 52.9%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
23.4%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
413.9
Pts/Drive
2.57
3rd Down%
42.1%
3&Out%
20.5%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 14 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Houston | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 502 | 286 |
| Points / Game | 35.9 | 20.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 303 | 218 |
| Rushing | 98 | 80 |
| Passing | 182 | 110 |
| Penalty | 23 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 515 | 445 |
| Yards | 1,992 | 1,515 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 142.3 | 108.2 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 458 | 413 |
| Completions | 307 | 228 |
| Completion % | 67.0% | 55.2% |
| Yards | 3,802 | 2,716 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 154.58 | 118.05 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 973 | 858 |
| Yards | 5,794 | 4,231 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 413.9 | 302.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 7 |
| Yards | 396 | 50 |
| Average | 14.1 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 42 | 41 |
| Yards | 878 | 955 |
| Average | 20.9 | 23.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 3 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 84 |
| Yards | 2,467 | 3,356 |
| Average | 41.8 | 40.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 12 |
| Yards | 210 | 118 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 20 |
| Lost | 2 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 91 | 76 |
| Yards | 860 | 618 |
| Yards / Game | 61.4 | 44.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:26 | 26:31 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 197 | 187 |
| Conversions | 83 | 48 |
| Conversion % | 42.1% | 25.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 30 |
| Conversions | 17 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 68.0% | 46.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 49 | 25 |
| Score % | 89.1% | 73.5% |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 15 |
| TD % | 70.9% | 44.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 15 |
| Made | 16 | 11 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 63 | 34 |
| Made | 62 | 33 |
| Pct | 98.4% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.