Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ND

Notre Dame

Fighting IrishBalanced
FBS Independents11-2#7 (+9.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
86· BRating
60· CPer play
48· CConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
91· A-Per play
80· BConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
64· C3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.071
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.132
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
-0.128
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.170
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.053
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
+0.51
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#7
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#28
model 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
model 2 spots higher
51 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
94th
Offensive EPA/play
61th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: run defense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4662Penn State2022OA +0.105 / +0.152similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4383Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, turnover rate4204Houston2021OA +0.063 / +0.097similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense4115Minnesota2024OA +0.001 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate394

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida State41-38W-7.0L53.5O
2vs Toledo32-29W-18.5L52.5O
3vs Purdue27-13W-7.0W58.25U
4@ Wisconsin41-13W+2.8W--
5vs Cincinnati13-24L+1.5L50.5U
6@ Virginia Tech32-29W-0.5W47O
8vs USC31-16W-7.0W58U
9vs North Carolina44-34W-3.5W62.5O
10vs Navy34-6W-20.5W46.75U
11@ Virginia28-3W-5.5W64.5U
12vs Georgia Tech55-0W-17.0W59.5U
13@ Stanford45-14W-19.0W52.5O
18vs Oklahoma State35-37L-2.0L45.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS8-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off58thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off65thPass Def91thRush Def84thRed Zone Def98th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03962th-0.13992th
Red Zone+0.11780th-0.47398th
Third Down+0.15065th-0.26595th
No Garbage Time+0.04362th-0.11788th
First Half+0.06471th-0.24398th
Second Half+0.00950th-0.05765th
Early Downs+0.01055th-0.12392th
Passing Downs+0.06170th-0.20091th
Standard Downs+0.02858th-0.10284th
Goal to Go-0.10241th-0.27378th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
426.5
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
42.3%
3&Out%
23.5%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points458256
Points / Game35.219.7
First Downs
Total291244
Rushing92105
Passing167126
Penalty3213
Rushing
Attempts452456
Yards1,8721,761
Yards / Carry4.13.9
Yards / Game144.0135.5
Touchdowns2313
Passing
Attempts451431
Completions289262
Completion %64.1%60.8%
Yards3,6722,915
Yards / Attempt8.16.8
Touchdowns3013
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating149.99120.59
Total Offense
Plays903887
Yards5,5444,676
Yards / Play6.15.3
Yards / Game426.5359.7
Punt Returns
Returns2014
Yards16482
Average8.25.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1846
Yards423937
Average23.520.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5873
Yards2,5413,214
Average43.844.0
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards303137
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles1220
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties7390
Yards642705
Yards / Game49.454.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5630:04
Third Downs
Attempts182183
Conversions7759
Conversion %42.3%32.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1716
Conversions99
Conversion %52.9%56.3%
Red Zone
Trips5047
Scores (TD + FG)4437
Score %88.0%78.7%
Touchdowns3318
TD %66.0%38.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2130
Made1621
Pct76.2%70.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5525
Made5423
Pct98.2%92.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →