Fourth Down Data
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PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsBalanced
Big Ten Conference11-2#8 (+10.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

94· AOverall
Offense
87· BRating
68· CPer play
57· CConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
92· A-Per play
69· CConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.105
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.152
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.046
Defensive EPA/play
-0.168
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.214
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.120
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.12
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#8
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#7
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#18
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#13
model 5 spots higher
49 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
96th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4382Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate4123App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, run defense4084Notre Dame2019OA +0.039 / +0.186similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA4035Notre Dame2023OA +0.085 / +0.178similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, defensive EPA398

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Purdue35-31W----
2vs Ohio46-10W-28.0W54.5O
3@ Auburn41-12W-2.5W48O
4vs Central Michigan33-14W-28.0L63U
5vs Northwestern17-7W-25.5L51U
7@ Michigan17-41L+7.0L51.5O
8vs Minnesota45-17W-4.0W44.5O
9vs Ohio State31-44L+15.5W61O
10@ Indiana45-14W-14.0W50.5O
11vs Maryland30-0W-10.0W59U
12@ Rutgers55-10W-19.0W45O
13vs Michigan State35-16W-18.0W52.5U
18@ Utah35-21W+1.3W53.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3
76.9%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS8-2
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off60thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off46thPass Def93thRush Def88thRed Zone Def94th3rd Down Def90th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02159th-0.16696th
Red Zone+0.30798th-0.32794th
Third Down+0.05746th-0.17490th
No Garbage Time+0.03767th-0.18196th
First Half+0.04965th-0.21496th
Second Half-0.00854th-0.11786th
Early Downs-0.05832th-0.09080th
Passing Downs+0.03356th-0.23193th
Standard Downs+0.01560th-0.12588th
Goal to Go+0.23282th-0.27181th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.3%Rush 53.7%
Havoc/Game
20.0
Havoc Rate
27.9%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
433.6
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
37.8%
3&Out%
13.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points465237
Points / Game35.818.2
First Downs
Total278235
Rushing10393
Passing153121
Penalty2221
Rushing
Attempts489436
Yards2,3541,446
Yards / Carry4.83.3
Yards / Game181.1111.2
Touchdowns2814
Passing
Attempts422476
Completions270248
Completion %64.0%52.1%
Yards3,2832,760
Yards / Attempt7.85.8
Touchdowns2912
Interceptions714
Passer Rating148.69103.24
Total Offense
Plays911912
Yards5,6374,206
Yards / Play6.24.6
Yards / Game433.6323.5
Punt Returns
Returns2414
Yards10595
Average4.46.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2031
Yards447604
Average22.419.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6079
Yards2,6193,429
Average43.643.4
Interception Returns
Returns147
Yards196127
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1222
Lost712
Penalties
Penalties6979
Yards628651
Yards / Game48.350.1
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3629:12
Third Downs
Attempts180201
Conversions6867
Conversion %37.8%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3029
Conversions2115
Conversion %70.0%51.7%
Red Zone
Trips5142
Scores (TD + FG)4631
Score %90.2%73.8%
Touchdowns3920
TD %76.5%47.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1816
Made1314
Pct72.2%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6025
Made5825
Pct96.7%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →