Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference9-4#83 (-2.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
31· DRating
73· BPer play
67· CConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
82· BPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.047
Defensive EPA/play
-0.139
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.186
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 8 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
38th
Opp-adjusted defense
78th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
62th
Defensive havoc
93th
Points per drive
79th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah State2018OA +0.052 / +0.107similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate4632Syracuse2026OA +0.031 / +0.060similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4173Penn State2022OA +0.105 / +0.152similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, run defense4084Notre Dame2024OA +0.053 / +0.098similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3955BYU2025OA +0.104 / +0.062similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA395

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia10-31L+6.0W61U
2vs Savannah State54-7W-50.5L--
3@ Texas State20-13W-21.5L49U
4vs Wake Forest19-20L+5.0W48.5U
6vs New Mexico State45-31W-13.5W56O
7@ Idaho23-20W-11.5L51.5U
8vs Coastal Carolina37-29W-20.0L51O
9@ Massachusetts27-30L-4.5L56.5O
10@ UL Monroe45-52L-8.0L62.5O
11vs Georgia Southern27-6W-17.5W52U
13@ Georgia State31-10W-6.5W51U
14vs Louisiana63-14W-14.0W56.5O
17@ Toledo34-0W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off59thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off75thPass Def80thRush Def87thRed Zone Def79th3rd Down Def75th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03168th-0.15287th
Red Zone+0.13880th-0.15079th
Third Down+0.13575th-0.19275th
No Garbage Time+0.04974th-0.14984th
First Half-0.03047th-0.16085th
Second Half+0.09685th-0.14582th
Early Downs+0.00766th-0.19895th
Passing Downs+0.12780th-0.14480th
Standard Downs-0.01659th-0.15887th
Goal to Go-0.00353th-0.19575th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.2%Rush 59.8%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
439.8
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
40.3%
3&Out%
18.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points435263
Points / Game33.520.2
First Downs
Total272222
Rushing13795
Passing114109
Penalty2118
Rushing
Attempts530459
Yards2,9071,787
Yards / Carry5.53.9
Yards / Game223.6137.5
Touchdowns2714
Passing
Attempts356380
Completions215219
Completion %60.4%57.6%
Yards2,8112,666
Yards / Attempt7.97.0
Touchdowns2814
Interceptions618
Passer Rating149.30119.25
Total Offense
Plays886839
Yards5,7184,453
Yards / Play6.55.3
Yards / Game439.8342.5
Punt Returns
Returns2616
Yards225131
Average8.78.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3050
Yards665989
Average22.219.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5774
Yards2,2423,113
Average39.342.1
Interception Returns
Returns186
Yards38224
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1618
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties9193
Yards831789
Yards / Game63.960.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:1928:41
Third Downs
Attempts176181
Conversions7160
Conversion %40.3%33.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2412
Conversions136
Conversion %54.2%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips5739
Scores (TD + FG)4832
Score %84.2%82.1%
Touchdowns3619
TD %63.2%48.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2423
Made1718
Pct70.8%78.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5430
Made5229
Pct96.3%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →