Fourth Down Data
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BYU

BYU

CougarsBalanced
Big 12 Conference12-2#18 (+13.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
79· BRating
70· BPer play
83· BConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
85· BRating
63· CPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
95· ARed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.104
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.062
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.053
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.106
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.098
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.98
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.45
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
AP 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#39
model 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#47
model 29 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where BYU ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
75th
Offensive EPA/play
71th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate4032App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3953Utah State2018OA +0.052 / +0.107similar: rushing offense, run defense, offensive success rate3864Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate3625Air Force2022OA +0.034 / +0.042similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA362

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Portland State69-0W-42.5W61.5O
2vs Stanford27-3W-20.5W44.5U
4@ East Carolina34-13W-6.5W50.5U
5@ Colorado24-21W-20.5L47O
6vs West Virginia38-24W----
7@ Arizona33-27W-2.5W47O
8vs Utah24-21W+4.5W49U
9@ Iowa State41-27W+3.0W56.25O
11@ Texas Tech7-29L+11.0L51.5U
12vs TCU44-13W-3.0W51O
13@ Cincinnati26-14W-2.5W56.5U
14vs UCF41-21W-17.5W47.5O
15@ Texas Tech7-34L+12.5L49.5U
18vs Georgia Tech25-21W+1.5W58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS6-1
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off76thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off64thPass Def90thRush Def53thRed Zone Def96th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05169th-0.07471th
Red Zone+0.03358th-0.35196th
Third Down+0.16764th-0.04972th
No Garbage Time+0.06273th-0.07471th
First Half+0.06472th-0.05767th
Second Half+0.03870th-0.09181th
Early Downs+0.05779th-0.02251th
Passing Downs-0.00753th-0.18090th
Standard Downs+0.07876th-0.01553th
Goal to Go-0.01553th-0.34787th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
399.5
Pts/Drive
2.62
3rd Down%
41.4%
3&Out%
11.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — BYU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBYUOpponents
Scoring
Points440268
Points / Game31.419.1
First Downs
Total306251
Rushing149104
Passing133126
Penalty2421
Rushing
Attempts530460
Yards2,4931,718
Yards / Carry4.73.7
Yards / Game178.1122.7
Touchdowns3313
Passing
Attempts404452
Completions258260
Completion %63.9%57.5%
Yards3,1002,936
Yards / Attempt7.76.5
Touchdowns1517
Interceptions717
Passer Rating137.10116.97
Total Offense
Plays934912
Yards5,5934,654
Yards / Play6.05.1
Yards / Game399.5332.4
Punt Returns
Returns269
Yards303103
Average11.711.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2016
Yards465267
Average23.316.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4152
Yards1,7442,306
Average42.544.3
Interception Returns
Returns177
Yards25149
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles1715
Lost97
Penalties
Penalties7585
Yards635631
Yards / Game45.445.1
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4327:17
Third Downs
Attempts181189
Conversions7563
Conversion %41.4%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3139
Conversions1818
Conversion %58.1%46.2%
Red Zone
Trips5954
Scores (TD + FG)5338
Score %89.8%70.4%
Touchdowns3622
TD %61.0%40.7%
Field Goals
Attempts3026
Made2319
Pct76.7%73.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4929
Made4929
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →