Fourth Down Data
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TTU

Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference1-0#91 (-2.63)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
43· CPer play
79· BConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
62· CPer play
51· CConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
99· A+Red-zone D
21· D3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.035
Defensive EPA/play
-0.184
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.1%
Def Success Rate
37.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.219
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.93
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.37
own return game
Return Defense
-1.09
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
82th
Points per drive
59th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2024OA +0.002 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, run defense, pass defense3762Utah2017OA -0.009 / +0.071similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3663Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3544Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: passing offense, havoc rate, takeaway rate3495Vanderbilt2026OA -0.036 / -0.005similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA349

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Abilene Christian33-10W-43.5L59.5U
2@ Oregon State------
3vs Houston------
4vs Sam Houston------
5@ Colorado------
7vs Arizona State------
8@ Cincinnati------
9vs Arizona------
10vs West Virginia------
11@ Oklahoma State------
12@ Baylor------
13vs TCU------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off62thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off21thPass Def44thRush Def85thRed Zone Def100th3rd Down Def39th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08059th-0.19266th
Red Zone-0.49312th-1.470100th
Third Down-0.29421th+0.02639th
No Garbage Time+0.03544th-0.18463th
First Half+0.19972th-0.09046th
Second Half-0.05639th-0.28578th
Early Downs+0.10267th-0.32183th
Passing Downs+0.04750th+0.01844th
Standard Downs+0.09262th-0.38385th
Goal to Go-0.46512th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
18.0
Havoc Rate
29.5%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
471.0
Pts/Drive
3.25
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points3310
Points / Game33.010.0
First Downs
Total2615
Rushing125
Passing136
Penalty14
Rushing
Attempts3929
Yards17375
Yards / Carry4.42.6
Yards / Game173.075.0
Touchdowns20
Passing
Attempts3432
Completions2618
Completion %76.5%56.3%
Yards298119
Yards / Attempt8.83.7
Touchdowns10
Interceptions11
Passer Rating153.9281.24
Total Offense
Plays7361
Yards471194
Yards / Play6.53.2
Yards / Game471.0194.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards6-1
Average3.0-1.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns21
Yards2198
Average10.598.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts25
Yards101213
Average50.542.6
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards150
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties54
Yards6017
Yards / Game60.017.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1227:48
Third Downs
Attempts1215
Conversions56
Conversion %41.7%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts11
Conversions10
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)50
Score %100.0%0.0%
Touchdowns20
TD %40.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts42
Made41
Pct100.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts31
Made31
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →