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MICH
Michigan
WolverinesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference9-4#23 (+12.21)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
80· BRating
70· BPer play
68· CConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
50· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
40· C3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.091
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.024
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.066
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.076
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#21
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#15
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#12
recruiting 11 spots higher
52 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense81th
Opp-adjusted defense64th
Offensive EPA/play70th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate78th
Explosiveness49th
Defensive havoc70th
Points per drive57th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4642Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3933Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3894Boise State2023OA +0.080 / -0.028similar: passing offense, run defense, takeaway rate3795Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense370
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs New Mexico | 34-17 | W | -34.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 2 | @ Oklahoma | 13-24 | L | +4.5 | L | 44 | U |
| 3 | vs Central Michigan | 63-3 | W | -27.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Nebraska | 30-27 | W | -2.5 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Wisconsin | 24-10 | W | -17.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 7 | @ USC | 13-31 | L | +2.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Washington | 24-7 | W | -5.0 | W | 51 | U |
| 9 | @ Michigan State | 31-20 | W | -14.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Purdue | 21-16 | W | -21.0 | L | 49 | U |
| 12 | @ Northwestern | 24-22 | W | -10.5 | L | 41.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Maryland | 45-20 | W | -22.5 | W | 60.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Ohio State | 9-27 | L | +10.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 19 | @ Texas | 27-41 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS0-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.056 | 72th | -0.025 | 55th |
| Red Zone | +0.058 | 64th | -0.124 | 75th |
| Third Down | +0.032 | 40th | +0.015 | 61th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.048 | 70th | -0.018 | 51th |
| First Half | +0.086 | 76th | +0.002 | 42th |
| Second Half | +0.027 | 67th | -0.055 | 69th |
| Early Downs | +0.096 | 90th | -0.055 | 67th |
| Passing Downs | -0.001 | 54th | +0.037 | 31th |
| Standard Downs | +0.083 | 79th | -0.056 | 67th |
| Goal to Go | -0.049 | 44th | +0.050 | 41th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.4%Rush 59.6%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
396.9
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
18.6%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 358 | 265 |
| Points / Game | 27.5 | 20.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 262 | 240 |
| Rushing | 134 | 89 |
| Passing | 113 | 128 |
| Penalty | 15 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 502 | 427 |
| Yards | 2,732 | 1,455 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 210.2 | 111.9 |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 14 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 340 | 426 |
| Completions | 202 | 271 |
| Completion % | 59.4% | 63.6% |
| Yards | 2,428 | 2,748 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 124.19 | 124.87 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 842 | 853 |
| Yards | 5,160 | 4,203 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 396.9 | 323.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 17 |
| Yards | 75 | 119 |
| Average | 4.2 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 17 |
| Yards | 424 | 330 |
| Average | 18.4 | 19.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 42 | 57 |
| Yards | 1,793 | 2,485 |
| Average | 42.7 | 43.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 10 |
| Yards | 24 | 55 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 11 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 57 | 67 |
| Yards | 508 | 562 |
| Yards / Game | 39.1 | 43.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:47 | 30:13 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 165 | 179 |
| Conversions | 72 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 43.6% | 38.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 28 |
| Conversions | 7 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 38.9% | 60.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 33 |
| Score % | 78.8% | 84.6% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 21 |
| TD % | 61.5% | 53.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 20 |
| Made | 17 | 17 |
| Pct | 68.0% | 85.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 28 |
| Made | 43 | 28 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.