← All Teams
GAST
Georgia State
PanthersRun-HeavySun Belt Conference8-5#71 (-0.24)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
47· COverall
Offense
50· CRating
57· CPer play
69· CConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
81· BPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.030
Defensive EPA/play
-0.081
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.111
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.030
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.43
own return game
Return Defense
-0.39
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#85
model 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 1 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense65th
Opp-adjusted defense74th
Offensive EPA/play57th
Defensive EPA/play82th
Offensive success rate71th
Explosiveness68th
Defensive havoc74th
Points per drive50th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Penn State2019OA +0.081 / +0.107similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA4162Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3993Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3894Notre Dame2017OA +0.053 / +0.157similar: run defense, defensive EPA, passing offense3645Baylor2021OA -0.042 / +0.084similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense361
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Army | 10-43 | L | -2.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 2 | @ North Carolina | 17-59 | L | +24.5 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Charlotte | 20-9 | W | -2.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Auburn | 24-34 | L | +27.5 | W | 57 | O |
| 5 | vs App State | 16-45 | L | +10.0 | L | 55.25 | O |
| 6 | @ UL Monroe | 55-21 | W | -16.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 8 | vs Texas State | 28-16 | W | -10.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Georgia Southern | 21-14 | W | +12.3 | W | 54 | U |
| 10 | @ Louisiana | 17-21 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Coastal Carolina | 42-40 | W | +10.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 12 | vs Arkansas State | 28-20 | W | -16.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Troy | 37-10 | W | -6.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 17 | @ Ball State | 51-20 | W | -6.0 | W | 53 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.033 | 56th | -0.040 | 62th |
| Red Zone | +0.157 | 88th | -0.149 | 74th |
| Third Down | +0.101 | 54th | +0.183 | 26th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.033 | 58th | -0.078 | 80th |
| First Half | +0.045 | 61th | -0.086 | 75th |
| Second Half | +0.020 | 58th | +0.008 | 45th |
| Early Downs | +0.060 | 74th | -0.075 | 74th |
| Passing Downs | -0.130 | 20th | +0.049 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | +0.108 | 88th | -0.094 | 83th |
| Goal to Go | +0.304 | 92th | -0.049 | 56th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 34.7%Rush 65.3%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
386.4
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
23.6%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Georgia State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 366 | 352 |
| Points / Game | 28.2 | 27.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 281 | 284 |
| Rushing | 166 | 115 |
| Passing | 100 | 139 |
| Penalty | 15 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 586 | 524 |
| Yards | 2,922 | 1,830 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 224.8 | 140.8 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 311 | 437 |
| Completions | 180 | 260 |
| Completion % | 57.9% | 59.5% |
| Yards | 2,101 | 3,403 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.8 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 129.64 | 134.98 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 897 | 961 |
| Yards | 5,023 | 5,233 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 386.4 | 402.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 16 |
| Yards | 4 | 100 |
| Average | 1.3 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 41 |
| Yards | 123 | 953 |
| Average | 15.4 | 23.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 61 | 54 |
| Yards | 2,501 | 2,357 |
| Average | 41.0 | 43.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 8 |
| Yards | 170 | 80 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 21 |
| Lost | 7 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 56 |
| Yards | 651 | 512 |
| Yards / Game | 50.1 | 39.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:31 | 32:29 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 172 | 203 |
| Conversions | 72 | 90 |
| Conversion % | 41.9% | 44.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 29 |
| Conversions | 10 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 51.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 32 |
| Score % | 92.3% | 78.0% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 23 |
| TD % | 69.2% | 56.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 21 |
| Made | 13 | 16 |
| Pct | 86.7% | 76.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 39 |
| Made | 45 | 38 |
| Pct | 95.7% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.