Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference11-2#6 (+22.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

95· AOverall
Offense
89· BRating
66· CPer play
61· CConsistency
47· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
75· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.081
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.107
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.049
Defensive EPA/play
-0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
40.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.140
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#6
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#9
model 3 spots higher
50 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
47th
Defensive havoc
93th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA4162Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA4113Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3814Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, run defense3685TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate357

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Idaho79-7W-7.0W59O
2vs Buffalo45-13W-31.5W57O
3vs Pittsburgh17-10W-17.0L53.5U
5@ Maryland59-0W-6.5W62U
6vs Purdue35-7W-28.5L55.5U
7@ Iowa17-12W-3.5W43.5U
8vs Michigan28-21W-7.5L47O
9@ Michigan State28-7W-5.5W41U
11@ Minnesota26-31L-7.0L49O
12vs Indiana34-27W-15.0L55.5O
13@ Ohio State17-28L+20.0W59U
14vs Rutgers27-6W-39.5L51U
18vs Memphis53-39W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off99thRed Zone Off91th3rd Down Off69thPass Def54thRush Def96thRed Zone Def88th3rd Down Def49th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07273th-0.10887th
Red Zone+0.23091th-0.24188th
Third Down+0.12969th+0.01949th
No Garbage Time+0.07575th-0.09077th
First Half+0.10780th-0.04863th
Second Half+0.03758th-0.17798th
Early Downs+0.10988th-0.17997th
Passing Downs-0.12519th-0.02054th
Standard Downs+0.16799th-0.16596th
Goal to Go+0.08466th-0.20771th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
17.7
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
411.9
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
22.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points465208
Points / Game35.816.0
First Downs
Total275246
Rushing12587
Passing134140
Penalty1619
Rushing
Attempts516484
Yards2,4781,235
Yards / Carry4.82.6
Yards / Game190.695.0
Touchdowns3413
Passing
Attempts369451
Completions217273
Completion %58.8%60.5%
Yards2,8773,269
Yards / Attempt7.87.2
Touchdowns2510
Interceptions910
Passer Rating141.78124.30
Total Offense
Plays885935
Yards5,3554,504
Yards / Play6.14.8
Yards / Game411.9346.5
Punt Returns
Returns2820
Yards17834
Average6.41.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2814
Yards549239
Average19.617.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6380
Yards2,6283,050
Average41.738.1
Interception Returns
Returns109
Yards14748
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1627
Lost512
Penalties
Penalties5777
Yards589563
Yards / Game45.343.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2231:38
Third Downs
Attempts172203
Conversions7373
Conversion %42.4%36.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1826
Conversions1115
Conversion %61.1%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips5233
Scores (TD + FG)4727
Score %90.4%81.8%
Touchdowns3716
TD %71.2%48.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1522
Made1316
Pct86.7%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5822
Made5622
Pct96.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →