Fourth Down Data
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KSU

Kansas State

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference9-4#41 (+3.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

69· COverall
Offense
69· CRating
78· BPer play
67· CConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
73· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
39· D3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.031
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.073
Defensive EPA/play
-0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
41.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.139
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.053
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#41
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#20
market 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#58
model 17 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Kansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
76th
Opp-adjusted defense
78th
Offensive EPA/play
79th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
72th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, passing offense4622Penn State2019OA +0.081 / +0.107similar: rushing offense, passing offense, defensive EPA4113Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3994Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: run defense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3925Iowa State2021OA +0.106 / +0.077similar: turnover rate, run defense, offensive success rate390

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UT Martin41-6W-37.5L56.5U
2@ Tulane34-27W-10.0L49.5O
3vs Arizona31-7W----
4@ BYU9-38L-6.5L48U
5vs Oklahoma State42-20W-5.0W56O
7@ Colorado31-28W-4.0L56.5O
8@ West Virginia45-18W-3.0W54.5O
9vs Kansas29-27W-10.0L55.5O
10@ Houston19-24L-13.0L46U
12vs Arizona State14-24L-9.5L50U
13vs Cincinnati41-15W-8.5W53O
14@ Iowa State21-29L+2.5L51.5U
18vs Rutgers44-41W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS4-8
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off26thRush Off93thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off40thPass Def32thRush Def93thRed Zone Def19th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07176th-0.05874th
Red Zone+0.07163th+0.13719th
Third Down+0.06440th+0.09944th
No Garbage Time+0.06779th-0.06273th
First Half+0.05569th+0.01938th
Second Half+0.08677th-0.13992th
Early Downs+0.16499th-0.12389th
Passing Downs-0.05726th+0.06432th
Standard Downs+0.13793th-0.14293th
Goal to Go+0.03754th+0.2617th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.4%Rush 54.6%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.7
Yards/Game
426.8
Pts/Drive
2.53
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Kansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatKansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points401304
Points / Game30.823.4
First Downs
Total264243
Rushing13387
Passing120130
Penalty1126
Rushing
Attempts461433
Yards2,8011,543
Yards / Carry6.13.6
Yards / Game215.5118.7
Touchdowns2115
Passing
Attempts383416
Completions222244
Completion %58.0%58.7%
Yards2,7482,921
Yards / Attempt7.27.0
Touchdowns2520
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating134.55128.69
Total Offense
Plays844849
Yards5,5494,464
Yards / Play6.65.3
Yards / Game426.8343.4
Punt Returns
Returns1313
Yards142219
Average10.916.8
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns2822
Yards552482
Average19.721.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4757
Yards1,9902,418
Average42.342.4
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards162122
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1312
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties7159
Yards594459
Yards / Game45.735.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1030:50
Third Downs
Attempts170179
Conversions7068
Conversion %41.2%38.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2628
Conversions159
Conversion %57.7%32.1%
Red Zone
Trips4842
Scores (TD + FG)4235
Score %87.5%83.3%
Touchdowns3225
TD %66.7%59.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2117
Made1715
Pct81.0%88.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4534
Made4433
Pct97.8%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →