Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#34 (+5.01)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
82· BRating
61· CPer play
72· BConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
83· BPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.106
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.077
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
-0.092
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.0%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.52

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.41
own return game
Return Defense
-1.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#34
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#10
market 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#52
model 18 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
83th
Offensive EPA/play
62th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
77th
Explosiveness
52th
Defensive havoc
82th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: turnover rate, run defense, offensive success rate3902Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3843Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense3684Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, havoc rate3595Penn State2019OA +0.081 / +0.107similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive EPA357

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Iowa16-10W-31.5L--
2vs Iowa17-27L-4.0L44.5U
3@ UNLV48-3W-32.0W53U
4@ Baylor29-31L-7.0L46.5O
5vs Kansas59-7W-34.5W56.5O
7@ Kansas State33-20W-6.5W51.5O
8vs Oklahoma State24-21W-7.0L47.5U
9@ West Virginia31-38L-7.0L48O
10vs Texas30-7W-6.5W60.5U
11@ Texas Tech38-41L-10.5L58.5O
12@ Oklahoma21-28L+4.0L60U
13vs TCU48-14W----
18vs Clemson13-20L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off33thRush Off89thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off23thPass Def44thRush Def95thRed Zone Def52th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05268th-0.08683th
Red Zone+0.12481th-0.04752th
Third Down-0.07723th+0.00167th
No Garbage Time+0.04159th-0.09585th
First Half+0.03559th-0.02157th
Second Half+0.07083th-0.15389th
Early Downs+0.11293th-0.07674th
Passing Downs-0.06233th+0.01244th
Standard Downs+0.10989th-0.13995th
Goal to Go-0.01054th+0.01447th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.0%Rush 48.0%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
21.0%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
424.5
Pts/Drive
2.52
3rd Down%
36.4%
3&Out%
20.7%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points407267
Points / Game31.320.5
First Downs
Total280216
Rushing9496
Passing164107
Penalty2213
Rushing
Attempts411449
Yards2,0891,590
Yards / Carry5.13.5
Yards / Game160.7122.3
Touchdowns2511
Passing
Attempts446349
Completions313213
Completion %70.2%61.0%
Yards3,4302,441
Yards / Attempt7.77.0
Touchdowns2219
Interceptions911
Passer Rating147.02131.45
Total Offense
Plays857798
Yards5,5194,031
Yards / Play6.45.1
Yards / Game424.5310.1
Punt Returns
Returns1718
Yards111194
Average6.510.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1823
Yards405602
Average22.526.2
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5470
Yards2,1143,090
Average39.144.1
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards7873
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1816
Lost54
Penalties
Penalties6368
Yards502622
Yards / Game38.647.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5429:06
Third Downs
Attempts165178
Conversions6069
Conversion %36.4%38.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2319
Conversions158
Conversion %65.2%42.1%
Red Zone
Trips4933
Scores (TD + FG)4724
Score %95.9%72.7%
Touchdowns3319
TD %67.3%57.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2717
Made2410
Pct88.9%58.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4734
Made4733
Pct100.0%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →