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LOU
Louisville
CardinalsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference10-4#27 (+5.71)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
80· BOverall
Offense
66· CRating
59· CPer play
80· BConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
72· BPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.036
Defensive EPA/play
-0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.083
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.141
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.41
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#25
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#35
model 8 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense60th
Opp-adjusted defense80th
Offensive EPA/play60th
Defensive EPA/play73th
Offensive success rate81th
Explosiveness20th
Defensive havoc87th
Points per drive65th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Missouri2025OA -0.020 / +0.102similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate4472App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4163Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate4114Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate4085Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate381
2023 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Georgia Tech | 39-34 | W | -43.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Murray State | 56-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Indiana | 21-14 | W | -10.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Boston College | 56-28 | W | -3.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 5 | @ NC State | 13-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Notre Dame | 33-20 | W | +6.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 7 | @ Pittsburgh | 21-38 | L | -7.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 9 | vs Duke | 23-0 | W | -4.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Virginia Tech | 34-3 | W | -20.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Virginia | 31-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Miami | 38-31 | W | -1.0 | W | 47 | O |
| 13 | vs Kentucky | 31-38 | L | -7.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Florida State | 6-16 | L | +1.5 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 18 | @ USC | 28-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-8
42.9%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-6
Favorite ATS5-7
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.029 | 60th | -0.049 | 74th |
| Red Zone | -0.025 | 46th | -0.127 | 74th |
| Third Down | +0.005 | 18th | -0.001 | 87th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.036 | 60th | -0.047 | 73th |
| First Half | +0.119 | 81th | -0.043 | 73th |
| Second Half | -0.057 | 28th | -0.054 | 74th |
| Early Downs | +0.062 | 86th | -0.047 | 53th |
| Passing Downs | -0.007 | 33th | -0.011 | 70th |
| Standard Downs | +0.045 | 73th | -0.072 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | +0.061 | 56th | -0.564 | 96th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.4%Rush 56.6%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
415.1
Pts/Drive
2.41
3rd Down%
37.4%
3&Out%
17.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 14 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Louisville | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 430 | 298 |
| Points / Game | 30.7 | 21.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 292 | 222 |
| Rushing | 128 | 80 |
| Passing | 141 | 121 |
| Penalty | 23 | 21 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 533 | 419 |
| Yards | 2,499 | 1,397 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 178.5 | 99.8 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 408 | 416 |
| Completions | 266 | 231 |
| Completion % | 65.2% | 55.5% |
| Yards | 3,313 | 3,042 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 145.32 | 128.16 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 941 | 835 |
| Yards | 5,812 | 4,439 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 415.1 | 317.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 9 |
| Yards | 121 | 80 |
| Average | 4.3 | 8.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 25 |
| Yards | 485 | 585 |
| Average | 20.2 | 23.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 80 |
| Yards | 2,228 | 3,297 |
| Average | 40.5 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 12 |
| Yards | 149 | 177 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 14 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 81 |
| Yards | 686 | 693 |
| Yards / Game | 49.0 | 49.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:13 | 27:47 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 174 | 181 |
| Conversions | 65 | 54 |
| Conversion % | 37.4% | 29.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 25 |
| Conversions | 13 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 54.2% | 44.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 23 |
| Score % | 80.8% | 67.6% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 19 |
| TD % | 59.6% | 55.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 16 |
| Made | 18 | 11 |
| Pct | 72.0% | 68.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 52 | 37 |
| Made | 50 | 37 |
| Pct | 96.2% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.