Fourth Down Data
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MIZ

Missouri

TigersRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference8-5#35 (+7.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
50· CRating
53· CPer play
76· BConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
72· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.102
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.006
Defensive EPA/play
-0.079
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.6%
Def Success Rate
40.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.155
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#27
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#20
recruiting 15 spots higher
33 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
73th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
94th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisville2023OA +0.017 / +0.060similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate4472Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA4023Toledo2022OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3924Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, havoc rate3735Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, turnover rate368

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Arkansas61-6W----
2vs Kansas42-31W-4.0W56O
3vs Louisiana52-10W-27.0W47.5O
4vs South Carolina29-20W-10.0L48.5O
5vs Massachusetts42-6W-44.5L57U
7vs Alabama24-27L+3.0P51.5U
8@ Auburn23-17W-1.5W43.5U
9@ Vanderbilt10-17L+3.0L22.5O
11vs Texas A&M17-38L+11.5L34.5O
12vs Mississippi State49-27W-7.0W51.5O
13@ Oklahoma6-17L+6.5L42.5U
14@ Arkansas31-17W-3.5W58.75U
18vs Virginia7-13L-4.0L43.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS0-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off67thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off30thPass Def49thRush Def89thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01659th-0.08176th
Red Zone+0.07866th+0.01244th
Third Down-0.02830th+0.08047th
No Garbage Time+0.00150th-0.06468th
First Half+0.01452th-0.04159th
Second Half+0.01861th-0.11787th
Early Downs+0.01057th-0.11784th
Passing Downs-0.04241th-0.01349th
Standard Downs+0.04267th-0.12289th
Goal to Go-0.22016th-0.07959th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.3%Rush 60.7%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
22.9%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
416.3
Pts/Drive
2.34
3rd Down%
44.9%
3&Out%
16.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouriOpponents
Scoring
Points393246
Points / Game30.218.9
First Downs
Total299205
Rushing15076
Passing125101
Penalty2428
Rushing
Attempts558418
Yards2,9681,350
Yards / Carry5.33.2
Yards / Game228.3103.8
Touchdowns3112
Passing
Attempts362379
Completions229215
Completion %63.3%56.7%
Yards2,4442,255
Yards / Attempt6.85.9
Touchdowns1515
Interceptions117
Passer Rating127.57116.07
Total Offense
Plays920797
Yards5,4123,605
Yards / Play5.94.5
Yards / Game416.3277.3
Punt Returns
Returns1810
Yards21868
Average12.16.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2132
Yards421554
Average20.017.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4574
Yards1,8793,229
Average41.843.6
Interception Returns
Returns711
Yards14289
Touchdowns30
Fumbles
Fumbles189
Lost65
Penalties
Penalties7189
Yards665704
Yards / Game51.254.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5128:09
Third Downs
Attempts176183
Conversions7966
Conversion %44.9%36.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2218
Conversions1310
Conversion %59.1%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4936
Scores (TD + FG)4231
Score %85.7%86.1%
Touchdowns3120
TD %63.3%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2121
Made1515
Pct71.4%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4428
Made4227
Pct95.5%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →