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TOL
Toledo
RocketsBalancedMid-American Conference9-5#71 (-0.20)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
48· COverall
Offense
35· DRating
47· CPer play
49· CConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
94· APer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
17· DRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.078
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.016
Defensive EPA/play
-0.176
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
41.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.159
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.187
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.70
own return game
Return Defense
-0.19
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#40
market 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 4 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense28th
Opp-adjusted defense73th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate53th
Explosiveness63th
Defensive havoc89th
Points per drive50th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1LSU2026OA -0.005 / +0.116similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4102Oklahoma State2021OA +0.044 / +0.195similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4013Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, havoc rate3974Missouri2025OA -0.020 / +0.102similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3925UAB2020OA -0.016 / +0.042similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, havoc rate373
2022 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs LIU | 37-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Massachusetts | 55-10 | W | -28.0 | W | 49 | O |
| 3 | @ Ohio State | 21-77 | L | +31.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 4 | @ San Diego State | 14-17 | L | -3.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 5 | vs Central Michigan | 38-17 | W | -7.0 | W | 56 | U |
| 6 | @ Northern Illinois | 52-32 | W | -5.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 7 | vs Kent State | 52-31 | W | -7.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Buffalo | 27-34 | L | -7.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 9 | @ Eastern Michigan | 27-24 | W | -6.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Ball State | 28-21 | W | -17.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Bowling Green | 35-42 | L | -7.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Western Michigan | 14-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | @ Ohio | 17-7 | W | -3.0 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 17 | vs Liberty | 21-19 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS5-7
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.010 | 50th | -0.126 | 89th |
| Red Zone | +0.130 | 80th | +0.163 | 17th |
| Third Down | +0.116 | 59th | -0.091 | 81th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.021 | 47th | -0.172 | 93th |
| First Half | +0.003 | 52th | -0.172 | 92th |
| Second Half | -0.023 | 47th | -0.079 | 76th |
| Early Downs | -0.003 | 54th | -0.155 | 93th |
| Passing Downs | -0.046 | 43th | -0.157 | 81th |
| Standard Downs | +0.008 | 59th | -0.106 | 81th |
| Goal to Go | +0.296 | 89th | +0.062 | 34th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.9%Rush 57.1%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
16.4
Yards/Game
402.2
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
20.9%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 14 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Toledo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 438 | 351 |
| Points / Game | 31.3 | 25.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 308 | 236 |
| Rushing | 131 | 107 |
| Passing | 145 | 113 |
| Penalty | 32 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 582 | 523 |
| Yards | 2,487 | 2,005 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 177.6 | 143.2 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 438 | 429 |
| Completions | 246 | 234 |
| Completion % | 56.2% | 54.5% |
| Yards | 3,144 | 2,562 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 132.97 | 112.19 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,020 | 952 |
| Yards | 5,631 | 4,567 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 402.2 | 326.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 30 | 11 |
| Yards | 252 | 71 |
| Average | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 53 |
| Yards | 342 | 1,104 |
| Average | 15.5 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 71 | 96 |
| Yards | 2,650 | 3,750 |
| Average | 37.3 | 39.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 15 |
| Yards | 87 | 92 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 12 |
| Lost | 11 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 94 | 102 |
| Yards | 770 | 938 |
| Yards / Game | 55.0 | 67.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:37 | 30:23 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 209 | 220 |
| Conversions | 84 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 40.2% | 33.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 22 |
| Conversions | 16 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 59.3% | 45.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 34 |
| Score % | 88.7% | 85.0% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 28 |
| TD % | 69.8% | 70.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 16 |
| Made | 15 | 12 |
| Pct | 78.9% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 55 | 39 |
| Made | 55 | 37 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 6 |
| Made | 1 | 4 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.