Fourth Down Data
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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishRun-Heavy
FBS Independents10-3#8 (+19.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

94· AOverall
Offense
80· BRating
71· BPer play
56· CConsistency
79· BBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
77· BPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.157
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.126
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.167
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.18
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#8
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#11
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#7
recruiting 1 spots higher
50 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
71th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
58th
Explosiveness
80th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas State2024OA +0.024 / +0.031similar: rushing offense, run defense, defensive EPA3802San Diego State2017OA +0.025 / +0.065similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3723Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: run defense, defensive EPA, passing offense3644Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3595Penn State2019OA +0.081 / +0.107similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate349

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Temple49-16W+2.0W53.5U
2vs Georgia19-20L-5.5L56.5U
3@ Boston College49-20W-14.0W52O
4@ Michigan State38-18W-3.5W53.5O
5vs Miami (OH)52-17W-21.0W53.5O
6@ North Carolina33-10W-13.5W64U
8vs USC49-14W-4.0W61.5O
9vs NC State35-14W-7.0W60.5U
10vs Wake Forest48-37W-15.5L55O
11@ Miami8-41L-3.5L59.5U
12vs Navy24-17W-21.0L58.5U
13@ Stanford20-38L-3.0L58.5U
18@ LSU21-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off81thRush Off60thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off77thPass Def59thRush Def72thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04174th-0.07867th
Red Zone+0.19788th-0.07964th
Third Down+0.15077th-0.12066th
No Garbage Time+0.05175th-0.09972th
First Half+0.01664th-0.13880th
Second Half+0.07380th-0.02250th
Early Downs-0.04545th-0.09675th
Passing Downs+0.13881th-0.05159th
Standard Downs-0.01560th-0.09572th
Goal to Go+0.22782th-0.07655th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.6%Rush 61.4%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
448.2
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
21.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points445279
Points / Game34.221.5
First Downs
Total273260
Rushing145110
Passing103131
Penalty2519
Rushing
Attempts560506
Yards3,5012,008
Yards / Carry6.34.0
Yards / Game269.3154.5
Touchdowns359
Passing
Attempts352445
Completions182252
Completion %51.7%56.6%
Yards2,3262,791
Yards / Attempt6.66.3
Touchdowns2023
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating120.28121.88
Total Offense
Plays912951
Yards5,8274,799
Yards / Play6.45.0
Yards / Game448.2369.2
Punt Returns
Returns2527
Yards156227
Average6.28.4
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3657
Yards7121,286
Average19.822.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6575
Yards2,7693,202
Average42.642.7
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards209158
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1215
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties7585
Yards633717
Yards / Game48.755.2
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3632:24
Third Downs
Attempts192207
Conversions8473
Conversion %43.8%35.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1824
Conversions1011
Conversion %55.6%45.8%
Red Zone
Trips4648
Scores (TD + FG)4238
Score %91.3%79.2%
Touchdowns3525
TD %76.1%52.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1822
Made1414
Pct77.8%63.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5531
Made5531
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →