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SDSU
San Diego State
AztecsRun-HeavyPac-12 Conference10-3#42 (+6.62)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
68· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
67· CPer play
65· CConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
68· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
87· BRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.065
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.030
Defensive EPA/play
-0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.0%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.121
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.161
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.93
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.42
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#42
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
model 15 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense63th
Opp-adjusted defense71th
Offensive EPA/play68th
Defensive EPA/play68th
Offensive success rate62th
Explosiveness65th
Defensive havoc40th
Points per drive69th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Notre Dame2017OA +0.053 / +0.157similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3722Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3453Wyoming2023OA +0.016 / +0.024similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3434Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate3345Toledo2021OA +0.013 / +0.084similar: rushing offense, passing offense, run defense333
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UC Davis | 38-17 | W | -6.5 | L | 47 | O |
| 2 | @ Arizona State | 30-20 | W | +3.0 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Stanford | 20-17 | W | +8.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Air Force | 28-24 | W | -1.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Northern Illinois | 34-28 | W | -9.0 | L | 47 | O |
| 6 | @ UNLV | 41-10 | W | -8.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Boise State | 14-31 | L | -4.5 | L | 47 | U |
| 8 | vs Fresno State | 3-27 | L | -6.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Hawai'i | 28-7 | W | -7.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 10 | @ San José State | 52-7 | W | -23.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 12 | vs Nevada | 42-23 | W | -17.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 13 | vs New Mexico | 35-10 | W | -21.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 17 | @ Army | 35-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.018 | 65th | -0.080 | 68th |
| Red Zone | -0.056 | 37th | -0.214 | 88th |
| Third Down | +0.312 | 95th | -0.099 | 65th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.036 | 69th | -0.081 | 68th |
| First Half | -0.002 | 56th | -0.084 | 65th |
| Second Half | +0.039 | 74th | -0.077 | 68th |
| Early Downs | -0.003 | 63th | -0.068 | 66th |
| Passing Downs | -0.043 | 44th | -0.031 | 53th |
| Standard Downs | +0.052 | 75th | -0.106 | 74th |
| Goal to Go | -0.076 | 38th | +0.273 | 11th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 30.5%Rush 69.5%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
17.1%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
400.2
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
21.7%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | San Diego State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 400 | 263 |
| Points / Game | 30.8 | 20.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 255 | 199 |
| Rushing | 140 | 98 |
| Passing | 92 | 85 |
| Penalty | 23 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 575 | 471 |
| Yards | 3,282 | 1,770 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.7 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 252.5 | 136.2 |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 252 | 333 |
| Completions | 150 | 191 |
| Completion % | 59.5% | 57.4% |
| Yards | 1,920 | 2,323 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 137.37 | 121.42 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 827 | 804 |
| Yards | 5,202 | 4,093 |
| Yards / Play | 6.3 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 400.2 | 314.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 16 |
| Yards | 264 | 162 |
| Average | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 44 |
| Yards | 879 | 917 |
| Average | 25.9 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 72 |
| Yards | 2,258 | 3,016 |
| Average | 37.6 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 4 |
| Yards | 196 | 69 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 15 |
| Lost | 9 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 85 | 61 |
| Yards | 758 | 545 |
| Yards / Game | 58.3 | 41.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:55 | 28:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 165 | 177 |
| Conversions | 74 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 44.8% | 39.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 9 | 18 |
| Conversions | 4 | 4 |
| Conversion % | 44.4% | 22.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 25 |
| Score % | 83.7% | 75.8% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 19 |
| TD % | 62.8% | 57.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 11 |
| Made | 12 | 9 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 52 | 28 |
| Made | 52 | 28 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 5 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.