← All Teams
TOL
Toledo
RocketsBalancedMid-American Conference7-6#39 (+4.63)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
71· BOverall
Offense
54· CRating
56· CPer play
37· DConsistency
55· CBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
89· BPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.023
Defensive EPA/play
-0.121
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.144
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.121
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.62
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#39
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#13
market 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense53th
Opp-adjusted defense86th
Offensive EPA/play56th
Defensive EPA/play89th
Offensive success rate50th
Explosiveness56th
Defensive havoc83th
Points per drive58th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tennessee2023OA +0.001 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3632Georgia2019OA +0.072 / +0.181similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, pass defense3523TCU2020OA -0.008 / +0.043similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, passing offense3524LSU2017OA +0.097 / +0.076similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3455Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense336
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Norfolk State | 49-10 | W | -37.5 | W | - | - |
| 2 | @ Notre Dame | 29-32 | L | +18.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Colorado State | 6-22 | L | -14.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Ball State | 22-12 | W | -5.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Massachusetts | 45-7 | W | -27.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Northern Illinois | 20-22 | L | -13.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Central Michigan | 23-26 | L | -4.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Western Michigan | 34-15 | W | +1.8 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Eastern Michigan | 49-52 | L | -10.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 11 | @ Bowling Green | 49-17 | W | -7.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Ohio | 35-23 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Akron | 49-14 | W | -28.5 | W | 57.5 | O |
| 16 | vs Middle Tennessee | 24-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.030 | 55th | -0.098 | 88th |
| Red Zone | +0.081 | 72th | -0.209 | 86th |
| Third Down | +0.220 | 79th | +0.117 | 39th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.027 | 56th | -0.120 | 90th |
| First Half | +0.047 | 62th | -0.119 | 87th |
| Second Half | +0.014 | 54th | -0.073 | 74th |
| Early Downs | +0.108 | 91th | -0.113 | 89th |
| Passing Downs | -0.112 | 22th | -0.051 | 66th |
| Standard Downs | +0.114 | 90th | -0.127 | 94th |
| Goal to Go | -0.040 | 49th | -0.237 | 77th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.3%Rush 54.7%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
434.1
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
35.8%
3&Out%
17.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Toledo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 434 | 283 |
| Points / Game | 33.4 | 21.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 270 | 256 |
| Rushing | 131 | 102 |
| Passing | 114 | 121 |
| Penalty | 25 | 33 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 470 | 525 |
| Yards | 2,558 | 1,969 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.4 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 196.8 | 151.5 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 390 | 408 |
| Completions | 226 | 228 |
| Completion % | 57.9% | 55.9% |
| Yards | 3,085 | 2,583 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 141.47 | 118.89 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 860 | 933 |
| Yards | 5,643 | 4,552 |
| Yards / Play | 6.6 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 434.1 | 350.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 17 |
| Yards | 208 | 167 |
| Average | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 36 |
| Yards | 898 | 649 |
| Average | 24.3 | 18.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,578 | 3,073 |
| Average | 40.3 | 42.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 3 |
| Yards | 186 | 40 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 18 |
| Lost | 5 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 130 | 82 |
| Yards | 1,172 | 727 |
| Yards / Game | 90.2 | 55.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:57 | 31:50 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 173 | 210 |
| Conversions | 62 | 80 |
| Conversion % | 35.8% | 38.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 24 |
| Conversions | 10 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 43.5% | 45.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 36 |
| Score % | 86.0% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 20 |
| TD % | 60.5% | 44.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 31 |
| Made | 14 | 27 |
| Pct | 58.3% | 87.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 52 | 28 |
| Made | 52 | 26 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 92.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.