Fourth Down Data
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TCU

TCU

Horned FrogsRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference6-4#29 (+4.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

77· BOverall
Offense
52· CRating
30· DPer play
36· DConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
87· BPer play
99· A+Consistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.036
Defensive EPA/play
-0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
38.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.124
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.76
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#29
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#41
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#15
recruiting 14 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
46th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
45th
Defensive havoc
97th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2025OA -0.067 / +0.116similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, defensive success rate4192Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: run defense, defensive EPA, pass defense3853Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3784Missouri2022OA -0.024 / +0.119similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3745Duke2026OA -0.051 / +0.074similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate372

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs Iowa State34-37L+2.5L44O
5@ Texas33-31W+11.5W62.5O
6vs Kansas State14-21L-8.5L50.5U
8vs Oklahoma14-33L+6.5L59U
9@ Baylor33-23W-2.5W48O
10vs Texas Tech34-18W-8.5W61.5U
11@ West Virginia6-24L+3.0L45.5U
13@ Kansas59-23W-24.0W51.5O
14vs Oklahoma State29-22W+1.0W51P
15vs Louisiana Tech52-10W-21.5W50.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4
60.0%
O/U Record
5-4-1
55.6%
Straight Up
6-4
60.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off23thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off33thPass Def85thRush Def75thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03434th-0.08384th
Red Zone-0.16916th-0.06463th
Third Down-0.02133th+0.07352th
No Garbage Time-0.05226th-0.08384th
First Half-0.02437th-0.12489th
Second Half-0.04531th-0.04170th
Early Downs-0.10314th-0.11885th
Passing Downs+0.03049th-0.11985th
Standard Downs-0.06723th-0.05775th
Goal to Go-0.12728th-0.26887th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.9%Rush 60.1%
Havoc/Game
16.4
Havoc Rate
24.0%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
411.0
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
21.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTCUOpponents
Scoring
Points308242
Points / Game30.824.2
First Downs
Total195162
Rushing10158
Passing7589
Penalty1915
Rushing
Attempts412351
Yards2,1471,275
Yards / Carry5.23.6
Yards / Game214.7127.5
Touchdowns239
Passing
Attempts273308
Completions164167
Completion %60.1%54.2%
Yards1,9632,234
Yards / Attempt7.27.3
Touchdowns1118
Interceptions58
Passer Rating130.11129.24
Total Offense
Plays685659
Yards4,1103,509
Yards / Play6.05.3
Yards / Game411.0350.9
Punt Returns
Returns269
Yards31158
Average12.06.4
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2027
Yards410577
Average20.521.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5769
Yards2,3372,869
Average41.041.6
Interception Returns
Returns85
Yards8479
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1311
Lost94
Penalties
Penalties7766
Yards615598
Yards / Game61.559.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0929:51
Third Downs
Attempts144155
Conversions5451
Conversion %37.5%32.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1313
Conversions78
Conversion %53.8%61.5%
Red Zone
Trips3228
Scores (TD + FG)2722
Score %84.4%78.6%
Touchdowns1713
TD %53.1%46.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1720
Made1213
Pct70.6%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3721
Made3619
Pct97.3%90.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts18
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →