Fourth Down Data
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MIZ

Missouri

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference6-7#59 (+1.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
26· DRating
33· DPer play
41· CConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
76· BPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.119
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.067
Defensive EPA/play
-0.093
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.138
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.54
own return game
Return Defense
-0.47
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#85
model 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#30
recruiting 29 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Missouri ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
42th
Opp-adjusted defense
89th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
17th
Defensive havoc
95th
Points per drive
35th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2017OA -0.027 / +0.090similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense4192Southern Miss2017OA -0.034 / -0.038similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, run defense4143TCU2020OA -0.008 / +0.043similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3744Vanderbilt2026OA -0.036 / -0.005similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, passing offense3655Florida2017OA +0.003 / +0.060similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive success rate364

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisiana Tech52-24W----
2@ Kansas State12-40L+7.5L56U
3vs Abilene Christian34-17W----
4@ Auburn14-17L+7.0W51.5U
5vs Georgia22-26L+28.0W54.5U
6@ Florida17-24L+11.0W53.5U
8vs Vanderbilt17-14W-14.0L51.5U
9@ South Carolina23-10W+3.5W46.5U
10vs Kentucky17-21L+1.5L42U
11@ Tennessee24-66L+21.0L56.5O
12vs New Mexico State45-14W+3.0W56P
13vs Arkansas29-27W----
17vs Wake Forest17-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-8-1
27.3%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off13thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off30thPass Def85thRush Def27thRed Zone Def12th3rd Down Def78th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08425th-0.04759th
Red Zone-0.00547th+0.21512th
Third Down-0.03330th-0.08778th
No Garbage Time-0.07332th-0.08876th
First Half+0.01253th-0.06969th
Second Half-0.1859th-0.02249th
Early Downs-0.14413th+0.02725th
Passing Downs+0.04459th-0.17385th
Standard Downs-0.15913th+0.02627th
Goal to Go-0.17627th-0.04152th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.6%Rush 55.4%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
23.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
367.6
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
39.4%
3&Out%
24.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Missouri vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMissouriOpponents
Scoring
Points323327
Points / Game24.825.2
First Downs
Total241242
Rushing10198
Passing122116
Penalty1828
Rushing
Attempts490447
Yards2,0111,632
Yards / Carry4.13.7
Yards / Game154.7125.5
Touchdowns2019
Passing
Attempts395393
Completions250235
Completion %63.3%59.8%
Yards2,7682,799
Yards / Attempt7.07.1
Touchdowns1418
Interceptions911
Passer Rating129.29129.14
Total Offense
Plays885840
Yards4,7794,431
Yards / Play5.45.3
Yards / Game367.6340.8
Punt Returns
Returns1313
Yards147204
Average11.315.7
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns1611
Yards228150
Average14.313.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6568
Yards2,7022,757
Average41.640.5
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards9987
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1516
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties10170
Yards828553
Yards / Game63.742.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0527:45
Third Downs
Attempts193186
Conversions7664
Conversion %39.4%34.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2019
Conversions1012
Conversion %50.0%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips4740
Scores (TD + FG)3835
Score %80.9%87.5%
Touchdowns2826
TD %59.6%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2823
Made2214
Pct78.6%60.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3341
Made3339
Pct100.0%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →