Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ASU

Arizona State

Sun DevilsBalanced
Big 12 Conference1-0#38 (+5.05)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

72· BOverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
96· APer play
96· AConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
55· CPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
68· CRed-zone O
3· FRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.436
Defensive EPA/play
-0.144
lower = better
Off Success Rate
56.3%
Def Success Rate
30.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.580
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
6.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.17
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
55th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
97th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2026OA +0.069 / +0.042similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate3032Kansas State2026OA -0.003 / +0.089similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3013Auburn2017OA +0.082 / +0.202similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, pass defense2924Iowa State2019OA +0.102 / +0.045similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA2855Georgia State2026OA +0.063 / -0.016similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate279

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Morgan State70-7W-43.5W52.5O
2@ Texas A&M------
3@ Kansas------
5vs Baylor------
6vs Hawai'i------
7@ Texas Tech------
8vs Kansas State------
9@ BYU------
10vs Colorado------
11@ UCF------
12vs Oklahoma State------
13@ Arizona------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off78thRed Zone Off68th3rd Down Off82thPass Def91thRush Def32thRed Zone Def3th3rd Down Def82th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22182th-0.17664th
Red Zone+0.29568th+1.3563th
Third Down+0.65082th-0.50982th
No Garbage Time+0.36795th-0.14954th
First Half+0.36794th-0.14955th
Second Half+0.02347th-0.21666th
Early Downs+0.07861th+0.17715th
Passing Downs+0.35773th-0.53291th
Standard Downs+0.16078th+0.01332th
Goal to Go+0.36357th+1.35611th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.7%Rush 49.3%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
8.0
Yards/Game
681.0
Pts/Drive
6.00
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizona StateOpponents
Scoring
Points707
Points / Game70.07.0
First Downs
Total3211
Rushing127
Passing183
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts3525
Yards249102
Yards / Carry7.14.1
Yards / Game249.0102.0
Touchdowns41
Passing
Attempts3624
Completions2611
Completion %72.2%45.8%
Yards43286
Yards / Attempt12.03.6
Touchdowns60
Interceptions00
Passer Rating228.0275.93
Total Offense
Plays7149
Yards681188
Yards / Play9.63.8
Yards / Game681.0188.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards70
Average7.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns14
Yards1870
Average18.017.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts08
Yards0314
Average—39.3
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties45
Yards2237
Yards / Game22.037.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4830:12
Third Downs
Attempts1012
Conversions53
Conversion %50.0%25.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts51
Conversions40
Conversion %80.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)51
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns51
TD %100.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts00
Made00
Pct——
PAT Kicking
Attempts101
Made101
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →