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BUF
Buffalo
BullsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference9-4#68 (+0.98)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
50· COverall
Offense
37· DRating
37· DPer play
26· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
78· BPer play
69· CConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.016
Defensive EPA/play
-0.087
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.24
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.96
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.32
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#95
model 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense31th
Opp-adjusted defense73th
Offensive EPA/play37th
Defensive EPA/play79th
Offensive success rate24th
Explosiveness19th
Defensive havoc78th
Points per drive51th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Auburn2018OA +0.046 / +0.138similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3912Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, run defense3753Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3694Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3665Texas2025OA -0.022 / +0.134similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, havoc rate365
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Lafayette | 30-13 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Missouri | 0-38 | L | +34.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Massachusetts | 34-3 | W | -3.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Northern Illinois | 23-20 | W | +13.5 | W | 43 | P |
| 5 | @ UConn | 3-47 | L | +5.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Toledo | 30-15 | W | +9.5 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Western Michigan | 41-48 | L | +1.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Ohio | 16-47 | L | +6.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Akron | 41-30 | W | -1.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Ball State | 51-48 | W | +1.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 13 | @ Eastern Michigan | 37-20 | W | -23.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Kent State | 43-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 19 | @ Liberty | 26-7 | W | -2.5 | W | 51 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
8-4-1
66.7%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-1
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.029 | 31th | -0.038 | 69th |
| Red Zone | -0.076 | 32th | -0.141 | 75th |
| Third Down | -0.028 | 22th | -0.063 | 84th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.019 | 36th | -0.083 | 78th |
| First Half | -0.085 | 24th | -0.092 | 78th |
| Second Half | +0.032 | 56th | +0.016 | 42th |
| Early Downs | -0.049 | 31th | +0.027 | 28th |
| Passing Downs | +0.017 | 49th | -0.192 | 96th |
| Standard Downs | -0.055 | 23th | +0.046 | 29th |
| Goal to Go | -0.117 | 28th | -0.253 | 85th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.4%Rush 60.6%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.4%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
355.4
Pts/Drive
2.24
3rd Down%
33.7%
3&Out%
26.3%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 375 | 343 |
| Points / Game | 28.8 | 26.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 241 | 263 |
| Rushing | 120 | 97 |
| Passing | 103 | 144 |
| Penalty | 18 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 533 | 467 |
| Yards | 2,198 | 1,906 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 169.1 | 146.6 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 347 | 439 |
| Completions | 194 | 269 |
| Completion % | 55.9% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 2,422 | 3,187 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.0 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 129.15 | 135.13 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 880 | 906 |
| Yards | 4,620 | 5,093 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 355.4 | 391.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 16 |
| Yards | 217 | 123 |
| Average | 12.8 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 26 |
| Yards | 417 | 542 |
| Average | 16.7 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 67 | 63 |
| Yards | 2,783 | 2,521 |
| Average | 41.5 | 40.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 6 |
| Yards | 347 | 122 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 18 |
| Lost | 7 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 61 |
| Yards | 564 | 514 |
| Yards / Game | 43.4 | 39.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:53 | 30:24 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 194 |
| Conversions | 63 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 33.7% | 37.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 32 |
| Conversions | 17 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 60.7% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 37 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 31 |
| Score % | 82.6% | 83.8% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 20 |
| TD % | 56.5% | 54.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 21 |
| Made | 19 | 13 |
| Pct | 79.2% | 61.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 38 |
| Made | 34 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 11 | 5 |
| Made | 3 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.