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AUB
Auburn
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference8-5#19 (+7.50)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
52· CRating
33· DPer play
46· CConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
88· BRating
80· BPer play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
8· F3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.046
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.138
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.026
Defensive EPA/play
-0.096
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
40.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.098
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.69
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#8
recruiting 11 spots higher
48 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense92th
Offensive EPA/play33th
Defensive EPA/play81th
Offensive success rate39th
Explosiveness15th
Defensive havoc90th
Points per drive47th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Buffalo2024OA -0.016 / +0.027similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3922Louisville2025OA +0.020 / +0.123similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3713Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3704Clemson2025OA +0.079 / +0.044similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3675Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate366
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Washington | 21-16 | W | -3.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Alabama State | 63-9 | W | -62.0 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 3 | vs LSU | 21-22 | L | -10.0 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Arkansas | 34-3 | W | -30.0 | W | 57.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Southern Miss | 24-13 | W | -27.0 | L | 51 | U |
| 6 | @ Mississippi State | 9-23 | L | -3.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 7 | vs Tennessee | 24-30 | L | -14.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 8 | @ Ole Miss | 31-16 | W | -5.0 | W | 64 | U |
| 10 | vs Texas A&M | 28-24 | W | -3.5 | W | 47 | O |
| 11 | @ Georgia | 10-27 | L | +12.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Liberty | 53-0 | W | -29.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Alabama | 21-52 | L | +26.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 18 | vs Purdue | 63-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS0-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.044 | 26th | -0.109 | 86th |
| Red Zone | -0.096 | 25th | -0.453 | 99th |
| Third Down | -0.171 | 8th | -0.038 | 67th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.035 | 30th | -0.104 | 84th |
| First Half | +0.025 | 58th | -0.139 | 85th |
| Second Half | -0.117 | 10th | -0.076 | 79th |
| Early Downs | -0.034 | 38th | -0.102 | 86th |
| Passing Downs | -0.054 | 28th | -0.058 | 64th |
| Standard Downs | -0.039 | 31th | -0.143 | 93th |
| Goal to Go | -0.098 | 26th | -0.656 | 99th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.7%Rush 57.3%
Havoc/Game
16.4
Havoc Rate
23.2%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
389.9
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
24.3%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 402 | 249 |
| Points / Game | 30.9 | 19.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 265 | 247 |
| Rushing | 128 | 95 |
| Passing | 115 | 122 |
| Penalty | 22 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 512 | 475 |
| Yards | 2,177 | 1,767 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 167.5 | 135.9 |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 382 | 422 |
| Completions | 233 | 234 |
| Completion % | 61.0% | 55.5% |
| Yards | 2,892 | 2,853 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 140.11 | 118.12 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 894 | 897 |
| Yards | 5,069 | 4,620 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 389.9 | 355.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 11 |
| Yards | 344 | 37 |
| Average | 10.8 | 3.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 16 |
| Yards | 452 | 311 |
| Average | 21.5 | 19.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,506 | 2,859 |
| Average | 44.0 | 39.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 5 |
| Yards | 173 | 44 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 26 | 18 |
| Lost | 8 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 83 | 90 |
| Yards | 737 | 719 |
| Yards / Game | 56.7 | 55.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:21 | 31:31 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 196 |
| Conversions | 66 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 36.9% | 34.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 21 |
| Conversions | 11 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 38.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 53 | 35 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 29 |
| Score % | 81.1% | 82.9% |
| Touchdowns | 32 | 12 |
| TD % | 60.4% | 34.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 30 |
| Made | 15 | 22 |
| Pct | 57.7% | 73.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 25 |
| Made | 49 | 25 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.