Fourth Down Data
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LOU

Louisville

CardinalsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#17 (+13.79)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
70· BRating
37· DPer play
36· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
91· A-Per play
87· BConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
82· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.123
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.039
Defensive EPA/play
-0.139
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.100
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.25

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.96
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#17
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#36
model 19 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
37th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
48th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
76th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4272Iowa2019OA -0.062 / +0.147similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3933Iowa2020OA -0.010 / +0.063similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3774Auburn2018OA +0.046 / +0.138similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3715Pittsburgh2022OA -0.021 / +0.091similar: offensive success rate, run defense, TD drive rate369

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Kentucky51-17W-38.0L68P
2vs James Madison28-14W----
4vs Bowling Green40-17W-26.5L51O
5@ Pittsburgh34-27W-3.5W56.5O
6vs Virginia27-30L-3.5L57.25U
8@ Miami24-21W----
9vs Boston College38-24W-25.5L54.5O
10@ Virginia Tech28-16W-5.5W43.5O
11vs California26-29L-2.0L50.5U
12vs Clemson19-20L----
13@ SMU6-38L+3.0L51U
14vs Kentucky41-0W-3.0W46.5U
18vs Toledo27-22W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS1-8
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS3-8
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off14thRush Off57thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off1thPass Def92thRush Def69thRed Zone Def70th3rd Down Def83th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04334th-0.11890th
Red Zone+0.17786th-0.09970th
Third Down-0.2951th-0.11483th
No Garbage Time-0.04836th-0.14291th
First Half-0.03138th-0.05666th
Second Half-0.05529th-0.18496th
Early Downs+0.03369th-0.07975th
Passing Downs-0.19114th-0.22092th
Standard Downs+0.02257th-0.06069th
Goal to Go+0.22480th-0.14570th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
384.5
Pts/Drive
2.25
3rd Down%
35.5%
3&Out%
19.2%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisvilleOpponents
Scoring
Points389275
Points / Game29.921.2
First Downs
Total258220
Rushing11188
Passing125111
Penalty2221
Rushing
Attempts421427
Yards2,1311,486
Yards / Carry5.13.5
Yards / Game163.9114.3
Touchdowns2513
Passing
Attempts418409
Completions268242
Completion %64.1%59.2%
Yards2,8682,454
Yards / Attempt6.96.0
Touchdowns1815
Interceptions914
Passer Rating131.65114.83
Total Offense
Plays839836
Yards4,9993,940
Yards / Play6.04.7
Yards / Game384.5303.1
Punt Returns
Returns3012
Yards48466
Average16.15.5
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1719
Yards380346
Average22.418.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5771
Yards2,2292,891
Average39.140.7
Interception Returns
Returns149
Yards37249
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1714
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties9096
Yards821762
Yards / Game63.258.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1229:46
Third Downs
Attempts166181
Conversions5960
Conversion %35.5%33.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1425
Conversions910
Conversion %64.3%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips4234
Scores (TD + FG)3828
Score %90.5%82.4%
Touchdowns2619
TD %61.9%55.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2919
Made2316
Pct79.3%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4327
Made4027
Pct93.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →