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IOWA
Iowa
HawkeyesBalancedBig Ten Conference10-3#23 (+12.89)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
83· BOverall
Offense
47· CRating
30· DPer play
54· CConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
93· APer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.062
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.147
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.052
Defensive EPA/play
-0.151
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.099
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.039
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.08
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
+0.24
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#23
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#15
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#43
model 20 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense25th
Opp-adjusted defense94th
Offensive EPA/play30th
Defensive EPA/play94th
Offensive success rate56th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc63th
Points per drive45th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Minnesota2024OA +0.001 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense4802Miami (OH)2023OA -0.108 / +0.066similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA4143Louisville2025OA +0.020 / +0.123similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3934Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: run defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3845Miami (OH)2024OA -0.003 / +0.041similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, pass defense375
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Miami (OH) | 38-14 | W | +1.5 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Rutgers | 30-0 | W | -18.0 | W | 48 | U |
| 3 | @ Iowa State | 18-17 | W | -1.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Middle Tennessee | 48-3 | W | -23.5 | W | 51 | P |
| 6 | @ Michigan | 3-10 | L | +4.0 | L | 48 | U |
| 7 | vs Penn State | 12-17 | L | +3.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Purdue | 26-20 | W | -17.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Northwestern | 20-0 | W | -7.5 | W | 35.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Wisconsin | 22-24 | L | +8.0 | W | 37.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Minnesota | 23-19 | W | -3.0 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Illinois | 19-10 | W | -15.0 | L | 48 | U |
| 14 | @ Nebraska | 27-24 | W | -4.5 | L | 45 | O |
| 18 | vs USC | 49-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-8-1
27.3%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.044 | 30th | -0.157 | 96th |
| Red Zone | +0.035 | 64th | -0.176 | 81th |
| Third Down | -0.104 | 23th | -0.155 | 87th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.052 | 29th | -0.145 | 94th |
| First Half | -0.026 | 37th | -0.140 | 89th |
| Second Half | -0.063 | 25th | -0.172 | 97th |
| Early Downs | -0.022 | 37th | -0.065 | 78th |
| Passing Downs | -0.005 | 44th | -0.345 | 100th |
| Standard Downs | -0.062 | 23th | -0.048 | 72th |
| Goal to Go | -0.066 | 45th | +0.103 | 23th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.6%Rush 52.4%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
366.5
Pts/Drive
2.08
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
20.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 335 | 182 |
| Points / Game | 25.8 | 14.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 248 | 216 |
| Rushing | 99 | 83 |
| Passing | 135 | 121 |
| Penalty | 14 | 12 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 453 | 418 |
| Yards | 1,789 | 1,463 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Yards / Game | 137.6 | 112.5 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 6 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 411 | 417 |
| Completions | 243 | 248 |
| Completion % | 59.1% | 59.5% |
| Yards | 2,976 | 2,544 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.2 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 129.39 | 116.04 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 864 | 835 |
| Yards | 4,765 | 4,007 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 366.5 | 308.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 11 |
| Yards | 121 | 73 |
| Average | 8.1 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 28 |
| Yards | 531 | 482 |
| Average | 26.6 | 17.2 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 79 |
| Yards | 2,453 | 3,212 |
| Average | 41.6 | 40.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 7 |
| Yards | 73 | 77 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 15 |
| Lost | 5 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 56 | 71 |
| Yards | 421 | 599 |
| Yards / Game | 32.4 | 46.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:02 | 27:58 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 190 |
| Conversions | 77 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 40.7% | 37.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 13 |
| Conversions | 15 | 4 |
| Conversion % | 71.4% | 30.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 23 |
| Score % | 95.2% | 79.3% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 13 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 44.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 18 |
| Made | 29 | 12 |
| Pct | 85.3% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 21 |
| Made | 32 | 20 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.