Fourth Down Data
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M-OH

Miami (OH)

RedHawksBalanced
Mid-American Conference9-5#33 (+4.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
47· CRating
39· DPer play
31· DConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
84· BPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
-0.108
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
45.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.092
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.12

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#55
model 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 47 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
84th
Offensive EPA/play
40th
Defensive EPA/play
85th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
14th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
40th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa2019OA -0.062 / +0.147similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, pass defense3752Penn State2021OA -0.022 / +0.125similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, pass defense3683Iowa2021OA -0.085 / +0.157similar: pass defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate3454Cincinnati2022OA -0.058 / +0.081similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive success rate3435Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: pass defense, rushing offense, havoc rate338

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Northwestern6-13L+3.0L39.5U
3vs Cincinnati16-27L+3.5L46U
4@ Notre Dame3-28L+28.0W43.5U
5vs Massachusetts23-20W-17.5L45U
6@ Toledo20-30L+6.5L44O
7@ Eastern Michigan38-14W-3.0W46.5O
8vs Ohio30-20W-3.5W44.5O
9vs Central Michigan46-7W-12.0W47O
11@ Ball State27-21W-30.3L46.5U
12vs Kent State34-7W-1.5W43U
13vs Northern Illinois20-9W+2.3W40.5U
14@ Bowling Green28-12W----
15vs Ohio3-38L-2.5L44U
18@ Colorado State43-17W-2.8W40.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
5-8-1
38.5%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off26thRed Zone Off1th3rd Down Off9thPass Def95thRush Def65thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02334th-0.09685th
Red Zone-0.4031th+0.00949th
Third Down-0.1719th+0.07950th
No Garbage Time-0.01935th-0.10084th
First Half-0.06830th-0.14290th
Second Half+0.02652th-0.05472th
Early Downs-0.03141th-0.04256th
Passing Downs+0.02049th-0.18895th
Standard Downs-0.04626th-0.04865th
Goal to Go-0.4215th+0.01346th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.5%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
11.4
Yards/Game
352.7
Pts/Drive
2.12
3rd Down%
33.7%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiami (OH)Opponents
Scoring
Points337263
Points / Game24.118.8
First Downs
Total236283
Rushing83116
Passing136142
Penalty1725
Rushing
Attempts413491
Yards1,8941,920
Yards / Carry4.63.9
Yards / Game135.3137.1
Touchdowns1420
Passing
Attempts399464
Completions225268
Completion %56.4%57.8%
Yards3,0442,720
Yards / Attempt7.65.9
Touchdowns2310
Interceptions1213
Passer Rating133.48108.51
Total Offense
Plays812955
Yards4,9384,640
Yards / Play6.14.9
Yards / Game352.7331.4
Punt Returns
Returns1818
Yards10056
Average5.63.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2925
Yards544400
Average18.816.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6168
Yards2,4922,754
Average40.940.5
Interception Returns
Returns1312
Yards162144
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1320
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties7469
Yards585587
Yards / Game41.841.9
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5831:03
Third Downs
Attempts163198
Conversions5584
Conversion %33.7%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1121
Conversions510
Conversion %45.5%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips4937
Scores (TD + FG)4028
Score %81.6%75.7%
Touchdowns2021
TD %40.8%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts3121
Made2715
Pct87.1%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3526
Made3426
Pct97.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →