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IOWA
Iowa
HawkeyesBalancedBig Ten Conference10-4#24 (+6.37)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
82· BOverall
Offense
22· DRating
7· FPer play
25· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
95· APer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.157
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.168
Defensive EPA/play
-0.155
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
41.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.013
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.60
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.88
own return game
Return Defense
+0.86
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#24
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#46
model 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#39
model 15 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Iowa ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense20th
Opp-adjusted defense97th
Offensive EPA/play8th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate18th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc39th
Points per drive14th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Wyoming2017OA -0.152 / +0.087similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense3602Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3593Miami (OH)2022OA -0.109 / -0.028similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, rushing offense3574California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3555Akron2025OA -0.107 / -0.010similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate353
2021 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Indiana | 34-6 | W | -3.3 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Iowa State | 27-17 | W | +4.0 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Kent State | 30-7 | W | -23.0 | P | 55.75 | U |
| 4 | vs Colorado State | 24-14 | W | -3.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Maryland | 51-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Penn State | 23-20 | W | -1.5 | W | 40.75 | O |
| 7 | vs Purdue | 7-24 | L | -11.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Wisconsin | 7-27 | L | +3.5 | L | 36.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Northwestern | 17-12 | W | -11.5 | L | 40.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Minnesota | 27-22 | W | -6.0 | L | 37 | O |
| 12 | vs Illinois | 33-23 | W | -1.5 | W | 41 | O |
| 13 | @ Nebraska | 28-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | vs Michigan | 3-42 | L | +10.5 | L | 43.5 | O |
| 18 | @ Kentucky | 17-20 | L | +3.5 | W | 44 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7-1
46.2%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.172 | 5th | -0.146 | 94th |
| Red Zone | -0.352 | 5th | -0.103 | 64th |
| Third Down | -0.211 | 8th | +0.022 | 63th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.165 | 8th | -0.159 | 95th |
| First Half | -0.132 | 17th | -0.113 | 86th |
| Second Half | -0.214 | 3th | -0.178 | 96th |
| Early Downs | -0.106 | 17th | -0.165 | 97th |
| Passing Downs | -0.211 | 8th | -0.150 | 83th |
| Standard Downs | -0.148 | 9th | -0.144 | 95th |
| Goal to Go | -0.139 | 33th | -0.139 | 68th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.3%Rush 55.7%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
303.7
Pts/Drive
1.60
3rd Down%
34.0%
3&Out%
25.6%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 14 games — Iowa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Iowa | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 328 | 269 |
| Points / Game | 23.4 | 19.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 234 | 250 |
| Rushing | 86 | 96 |
| Passing | 124 | 134 |
| Penalty | 24 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 507 | 508 |
| Yards | 1,731 | 1,602 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Yards / Game | 123.6 | 114.4 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 404 | 468 |
| Completions | 222 | 262 |
| Completion % | 55.0% | 56.0% |
| Yards | 2,521 | 3,003 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.2 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 25 |
| Passer Rating | 111.72 | 110.48 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 911 | 976 |
| Yards | 4,252 | 4,605 |
| Yards / Play | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 303.7 | 328.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 20 |
| Yards | 313 | 94 |
| Average | 7.8 | 4.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 12 |
| Yards | 759 | 208 |
| Average | 24.5 | 17.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 82 | 81 |
| Yards | 3,688 | 3,376 |
| Average | 45.0 | 41.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 11 |
| Yards | 225 | 73 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 10 |
| Lost | 8 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 57 | 86 |
| Yards | 505 | 718 |
| Yards / Game | 36.1 | 51.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:57 | 29:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 200 | 214 |
| Conversions | 68 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 34.0% | 36.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 26 |
| Conversions | 5 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 31.3% | 46.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 39 |
| Score % | 72.3% | 90.7% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 24 |
| TD % | 40.4% | 55.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 21 |
| Made | 24 | 18 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 85.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 29 |
| Made | 36 | 29 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.