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M-OH
Miami (OH)
RedHawksRun-HeavyMid-American Conference6-7#87 (-2.31)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
36· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
21· DPer play
18· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
65· CPer play
67· CConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.109
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.118
Defensive EPA/play
-0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.7%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.075
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.64
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.62
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#87
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#95
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Miami (OH) ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense16th
Opp-adjusted defense40th
Offensive EPA/play21th
Defensive EPA/play66th
Offensive success rate15th
Explosiveness18th
Defensive havoc44th
Points per drive21th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Illinois2021OA -0.054 / +0.040similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive success rate4802Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: passing offense, pass defense, offensive success rate4413Wyoming2018OA -0.118 / +0.091similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4004Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3705Western Michigan2017OA -0.044 / -0.053similar: run defense, passing offense, pass defense367
2022 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Kentucky | 13-37 | L | +16.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 2 | vs Robert Morris | 31-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Cincinnati | 17-38 | L | +22.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Northwestern | 17-14 | W | +7.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 5 | @ Buffalo | 20-24 | L | +1.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Kent State | 27-24 | W | +5.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 7 | @ Bowling Green | 13-17 | L | -7.0 | L | 46 | U |
| 8 | vs Western Michigan | 10-16 | L | -6.5 | L | 44.25 | U |
| 9 | @ Akron | 27-9 | W | -8.0 | W | 50 | U |
| 11 | vs Ohio | 21-37 | L | +1.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Northern Illinois | 29-23 | W | -2.5 | L | 45 | U |
| 13 | vs Ball State | 18-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | @ UAB | 20-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.120 | 16th | -0.053 | 64th |
| Red Zone | -0.157 | 22th | +0.075 | 31th |
| Third Down | -0.155 | 13th | +0.056 | 49th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.116 | 21th | -0.061 | 67th |
| First Half | -0.103 | 27th | -0.055 | 63th |
| Second Half | -0.135 | 14th | -0.050 | 61th |
| Early Downs | -0.097 | 19th | -0.041 | 59th |
| Passing Downs | -0.121 | 22th | -0.111 | 77th |
| Standard Downs | -0.119 | 19th | -0.019 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | -0.191 | 25th | +0.050 | 38th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.2%Rush 58.8%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
305.6
Pts/Drive
1.64
3rd Down%
31.9%
3&Out%
26.8%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 13 games — Miami (OH) vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 263 | 294 |
| Points / Game | 20.2 | 22.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 222 | 263 |
| Rushing | 100 | 99 |
| Passing | 96 | 140 |
| Penalty | 26 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 483 | 452 |
| Yards | 1,821 | 1,767 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 140.1 | 135.9 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 339 | 445 |
| Completions | 184 | 273 |
| Completion % | 54.3% | 61.3% |
| Yards | 2,152 | 3,083 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.3 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 119.25 | 127.21 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 822 | 897 |
| Yards | 3,973 | 4,850 |
| Yards / Play | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 305.6 | 373.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 24 |
| Yards | 172 | 69 |
| Average | 7.2 | 2.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 25 |
| Yards | 299 | 530 |
| Average | 16.6 | 21.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 75 | 66 |
| Yards | 3,156 | 2,541 |
| Average | 42.1 | 38.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 5 |
| Yards | 173 | 87 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 22 |
| Lost | 6 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 77 |
| Yards | 627 | 745 |
| Yards / Game | 48.2 | 57.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:02 | 29:58 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 185 | 187 |
| Conversions | 59 | 75 |
| Conversion % | 31.9% | 40.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 18 |
| Conversions | 11 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 55.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 39 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 37 |
| Score % | 79.5% | 88.1% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 26 |
| TD % | 51.3% | 61.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 23 |
| Made | 18 | 17 |
| Pct | 78.3% | 73.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 33 |
| Made | 27 | 33 |
| Pct | 96.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.