Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference6-6#81 (-1.79)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

39· DOverall
Offense
61· CRating
29· DPer play
47· CConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
51· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.079
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.22
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 6 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
34th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, rushing offense3722Miami (OH)2022OA -0.109 / -0.028similar: run defense, passing offense, pass defense3673Minnesota2017OA -0.088 / +0.031similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, run defense3674California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate3655Syracuse2019OA -0.024 / -0.043similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate342

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ USC31-49L+28.0W58.5O
2@ Michigan State14-28L+7.0L51U
3vs Idaho37-28W-17.0L55O
4vs Wagner49-14W-37.0L--
5vs Ball State55-3W-12.5W54.5O
6@ Buffalo71-68W-7.0L51.5O
7vs Akron13-14L-13.5L54.5U
8@ Eastern Michigan20-17W-2.5W52.5U
10vs Central Michigan28-35L-3.5L47.5O
11vs Kent State48-20W-20.5W45O
12@ Northern Illinois31-35L+8.5W49.5O
13@ Toledo10-37L+10.5L61.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off16thRed Zone Off12th3rd Down Off18thPass Def70thRush Def37thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def77th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08324th-0.03555th
Red Zone-0.18012th+0.3252th
Third Down-0.26418th-0.20177th
No Garbage Time-0.07930th-0.02452th
First Half-0.07829th-0.08967th
Second Half-0.08830th+0.01734th
Early Downs-0.11117th-0.02750th
Passing Downs-0.01154th-0.09870th
Standard Downs-0.11916th+0.00237th
Goal to Go-0.26016th+0.4353th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.3%Rush 65.7%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
389.6
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
39.5%
3&Out%
23.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points407348
Points / Game33.929.0
First Downs
Total250224
Rushing14198
Passing94104
Penalty1522
Rushing
Attempts562443
Yards2,6971,873
Yards / Carry4.84.2
Yards / Game224.8156.1
Touchdowns2627
Passing
Attempts294363
Completions172209
Completion %58.5%57.6%
Yards1,9782,669
Yards / Attempt6.77.4
Touchdowns1918
Interceptions810
Passer Rating130.90130.19
Total Offense
Plays856806
Yards4,6754,542
Yards / Play5.55.6
Yards / Game389.6378.5
Punt Returns
Returns1426
Yards105102
Average7.53.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4054
Yards8061,044
Average20.119.3
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6574
Yards2,7562,935
Average42.439.7
Interception Returns
Returns108
Yards170145
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1727
Lost1016
Penalties
Penalties6881
Yards639741
Yards / Game53.361.8
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3929:21
Third Downs
Attempts177168
Conversions7064
Conversion %39.5%38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts158
Conversions95
Conversion %60.0%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips5142
Scores (TD + FG)4336
Score %84.3%85.7%
Touchdowns3130
TD %60.8%71.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2311
Made157
Pct65.2%63.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4744
Made4643
Pct97.9%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →