Fourth Down Data
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AUB

Auburn

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference1-0#105 (-4.76)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
10· FRating
29· DPer play
38· DConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
50· CPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
58· CRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.051
Defensive EPA/play
-0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
49.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
15.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.31

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
29th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
35th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Maryland2024OA -0.026 / -0.007similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, run defense4042Temple2020OA -0.032 / -0.019similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3783Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense3534Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3435Rutgers2020OA -0.045 / -0.014similar: havoc rate, pass defense, TD drive rate339

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Baylor17-16W-7.5L58.5U
2vs Southern Miss------
3vs Florida------
4vs Vanderbilt------
5@ Tennessee------
7@ Georgia------
8vs LSU------
9@ Ole Miss------
10vs Arkansas------
11@ Mississippi State------
12vs Samford------
13@ Alabama------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off18thRush Off53thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off57thPass Def15thRush Def77thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05129th-0.06653th
Red Zone+0.62390th-0.24259th
Third Down+0.18157th-0.21764th
No Garbage Time-0.05129th-0.06650th
First Half-0.00942th+0.00736th
Second Half-0.09734th-0.13558th
Early Downs-0.05234th-0.10453th
Passing Downs-0.23618th+0.39415th
Standard Downs+0.05753th-0.28677th
Goal to Go-0th-0.26572th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.1%Rush 53.9%
Havoc/Game
20.0
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
389.0
Pts/Drive
1.31
3rd Down%
55.6%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAuburnOpponents
Scoring
Points1716
Points / Game17.016.0
First Downs
Total2427
Rushing97
Passing1417
Penalty13
Rushing
Attempts4145
Yards130103
Yards / Carry3.22.3
Yards / Game130.0103.0
Touchdowns20
Passing
Attempts3554
Completions2627
Completion %74.3%50.0%
Yards259333
Yards / Attempt7.46.2
Touchdowns02
Interceptions31
Passer Rating119.30110.32
Total Offense
Plays7699
Yards389436
Yards / Play5.14.4
Yards / Game389.0436.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards2-3
Average2.0-3.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts44
Yards170208
Average42.552.0
Interception Returns
Returns13
Yards610
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties65
Yards4740
Yards / Game47.040.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2832:32
Third Downs
Attempts1822
Conversions107
Conversion %55.6%31.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts16
Conversions04
Conversion %0.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips34
Scores (TD + FG)23
Score %66.7%75.0%
Touchdowns22
TD %66.7%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made11
Pct50.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts21
Made21
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →