Fourth Down Data
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GAST

Georgia State

PanthersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference4-8#88 (-2.41)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
52· CRating
52· CPer play
47· CConsistency
54· CBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
35· DPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
15· DRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.002
Defensive EPA/play
+0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
48.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.021
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.50
own return game
Return Defense
-0.50
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#81
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 13 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
54th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
55th
Defensive havoc
51th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3572Florida Atlantic2022OA -0.010 / +0.001similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive success rate3503Eastern Michigan2022OA +0.042 / -0.141similar: passing offense, pass defense, havoc rate3494Old Dominion2024OA +0.012 / -0.018similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3485Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA345

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ South Carolina14-35L+12.5L56.5U
2vs North Carolina28-35L+7.0P64.5U
3vs Charlotte41-42L+2.0L63O
4vs Coastal Carolina24-41L----
5@ Army31-14W+7.5W54.5U
6vs Georgia Southern41-33W-2.5W66.5O
8@ App State17-42L----
9vs Old Dominion31-17W-3.5W56U
10@ Southern Miss42-14W+2.0W48.5O
11vs UL Monroe28-31L-13.5L59P
12@ James Madison40-42L+9.5W52.5O
13@ Marshall23-28L+6.0W45O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-5-1
54.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off51thRed Zone Off89th3rd Down Off70thPass Def27thRush Def42thRed Zone Def15th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01149th+0.02331th
Red Zone+0.18589th+0.18815th
Third Down+0.18770th+0.13332th
No Garbage Time-0.00353th+0.02532th
First Half+0.04363th-0.03354th
Second Half-0.06835th+0.08315th
Early Downs-0.04441th+0.01931th
Passing Downs-0.01947th+0.07327th
Standard Downs-0.00751th-0.00342th
Goal to Go+0.25285th+0.25212th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.1%Rush 65.9%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
417.8
Pts/Drive
2.21
3rd Down%
40.7%
3&Out%
29.2%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points360374
Points / Game30.031.2
First Downs
Total266264
Rushing138124
Passing105111
Penalty2329
Rushing
Attempts577476
Yards2,5702,046
Yards / Carry4.54.3
Yards / Game214.2170.5
Touchdowns2622
Passing
Attempts298360
Completions174217
Completion %58.4%60.3%
Yards2,4432,746
Yards / Attempt8.27.6
Touchdowns1822
Interceptions713
Passer Rating142.49137.30
Total Offense
Plays875836
Yards5,0134,792
Yards / Play5.75.7
Yards / Game417.8399.3
Punt Returns
Returns1126
Yards58182
Average5.37.0
Touchdowns03
Kickoff Returns
Returns1214
Yards103329
Average8.623.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6154
Yards2,4362,315
Average39.942.9
Interception Returns
Returns137
Yards11467
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2118
Lost1112
Penalties
Penalties8563
Yards779617
Yards / Game64.951.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5231:08
Third Downs
Attempts182163
Conversions7468
Conversion %40.7%41.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2624
Conversions1511
Conversion %57.7%45.8%
Red Zone
Trips4140
Scores (TD + FG)3435
Score %82.9%87.5%
Touchdowns2930
TD %70.7%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1413
Made1110
Pct78.6%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4245
Made4144
Pct97.6%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →