Fourth Down Data
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Florida Atlantic

OwlsBalanced
American Conference5-7#79 (-0.97)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
54· CRating
66· CPer play
40· CConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
45· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.008
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.048
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.020
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.60
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.66
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.67
own return game
Return Defense
+0.24
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#67
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 4 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Florida Atlantic ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
46th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
46th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
60th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
57th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Hawai'i2020OA -0.004 / -0.014similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4122Utah State2025OA +0.038 / -0.036similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, TD drive rate4083Tulane2017OA -0.095 / -0.015similar: havoc rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3964Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3715Coastal Carolina2023OA +0.052 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, run defense351

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Charlotte43-13W-7.0W59.5U
1@ Ohio38-41L-4.5L49.5O
2vs Southeastern Louisiana42-9W-11.0W62.5U
3vs UCF14-40L+8.0L61.5U
4@ Purdue26-28L+20.0W61.5U
5@ North Texas28-45L-3.5L68O
7vs Rice17-14W-4.0L56U
8@ UTEP21-24L-4.0L51U
9vs UAB24-17W+4.5W46.5U
11@ Florida International52-7W-15.5W54.5O
12@ Middle Tennessee21-49L-6.0L51O
13vs Western Kentucky31-32L+7.0W61O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off93thRush Off28thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off45thPass Def21thRush Def66thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03262th-0.01047th
Red Zone+0.01050th+0.05136th
Third Down+0.05645th+0.06446th
No Garbage Time+0.04870th-0.00444th
First Half+0.04362th-0.04860th
Second Half+0.02061th+0.02530th
Early Downs-0.04043th-0.03653th
Passing Downs+0.21993th+0.09821th
Standard Downs-0.06728th-0.06766th
Goal to Go-0.36510th-0.06354th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.5%Rush 56.5%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
411.6
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
23.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Florida Atlantic vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida AtlanticOpponents
Scoring
Points357319
Points / Game29.826.6
First Downs
Total264250
Rushing10895
Passing126129
Penalty3026
Rushing
Attempts492440
Yards2,2142,148
Yards / Carry4.54.9
Yards / Game184.5179.0
Touchdowns1915
Passing
Attempts379405
Completions217245
Completion %57.3%60.5%
Yards2,7252,949
Yards / Attempt7.27.3
Touchdowns2525
Interceptions512
Passer Rating136.78136.10
Total Offense
Plays871845
Yards4,9395,097
Yards / Play5.76.0
Yards / Game411.6424.8
Punt Returns
Returns1425
Yards136164
Average9.76.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1429
Yards224488
Average16.016.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6256
Yards2,7702,449
Average44.743.7
Interception Returns
Returns125
Yards356206
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1716
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties7483
Yards696699
Yards / Game58.058.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4931:11
Third Downs
Attempts190157
Conversions8155
Conversion %42.6%35.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2024
Conversions1111
Conversion %55.0%45.8%
Red Zone
Trips4945
Scores (TD + FG)3939
Score %79.6%86.7%
Touchdowns3331
TD %67.3%68.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1514
Made1011
Pct66.7%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4538
Made4536
Pct100.0%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →