Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference6-7#94 (-6.64)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
48· CRating
71· BPer play
37· DConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
32· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.055
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.032
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.133
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.33

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#94
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#97
model 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 15 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
55th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida Atlantic2022OA -0.010 / +0.001similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, TD drive rate4082Kennesaw State2025OA +0.044 / -0.084similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3613Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, offensive EPA3604Tulsa2022OA +0.049 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA3445Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA341

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UTEP28-16W-5.5W60.5U
2@ Texas A&M22-44L+32.5W57O
3vs Air Force49-30W+4.5W51O
4vs McNeese State48-7W-24.0W63U
5@ Vanderbilt35-55L+22.5W58.5O
7@ Hawai'i26-44L-4.0W61.5U
8vs San José State30-25W----
9@ New Mexico14-33L+9.3L54.5U
11vs Nevada51-14W-9.5W52.5O
12@ UNLV26-29L+6.0W68U
13@ Fresno State28-17W0.0L60.5U
14vs Boise State24-25L----
17vs Washington State21-34L-1.5L49.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off56thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off51thPass Def67thRush Def25thRed Zone Def77th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06976th+0.01339th
Red Zone+0.08167th-0.12977th
Third Down+0.08351th-0.02567th
No Garbage Time+0.05571th+0.01933th
First Half+0.03160th-0.02048th
Second Half+0.11484th+0.04630th
Early Downs+0.03773th+0.0849th
Passing Downs+0.16584th-0.07467th
Standard Downs+0.01856th+0.05725th
Goal to Go+0.25084th+0.08939th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.3%Rush 52.7%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
409.5
Pts/Drive
2.33
3rd Down%
34.9%
3&Out%
26.5%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points402373
Points / Game30.928.7
First Downs
Total268294
Rushing102119
Passing134157
Penalty3218
Rushing
Attempts449488
Yards2,1122,356
Yards / Carry4.74.8
Yards / Game162.5181.2
Touchdowns2519
Passing
Attempts403479
Completions242282
Completion %60.0%58.9%
Yards3,2113,365
Yards / Attempt8.07.0
Touchdowns2626
Interceptions513
Passer Rating145.79130.37
Total Offense
Plays852967
Yards5,3235,721
Yards / Play6.25.9
Yards / Game409.5440.1
Punt Returns
Returns1420
Yards60184
Average4.39.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1630
Yards316607
Average19.820.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6953
Yards2,9192,373
Average42.344.8
Interception Returns
Returns135
Yards1265
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles137
Lost64
Penalties
Penalties9980
Yards782735
Yards / Game60.256.5
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1732:41
Third Downs
Attempts169201
Conversions5981
Conversion %34.9%40.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1336
Conversions718
Conversion %53.8%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4749
Scores (TD + FG)4041
Score %85.1%83.7%
Touchdowns3026
TD %63.8%53.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1824
Made1319
Pct72.2%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4738
Made4536
Pct95.7%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts57
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →