Fourth Down Data
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ASU

Arizona State

Sun DevilsBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#48 (+2.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
76· BPer play
67· CConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
33· DPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
67· C3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.066
Defensive EPA/play
+0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#48
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#32
recruiting 16 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
76th
Opp-adjusted defense
31th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
71th
Explosiveness
73th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
64th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2020OA -0.001 / -0.017similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense4062Georgia Tech2024OA +0.026 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, run defense, rushing offense4013Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3884Virginia Tech2020OA +0.040 / -0.010similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3875Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate383

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UTSA49-7W+6.0L54U
2vs Michigan State16-13W+4.5W54U
3@ San Diego State21-28L-4.5L48.5O
4@ Washington20-27L+17.5W53U
5vs Oregon State52-24W-21.5W64O
6@ Colorado21-28L+2.5L64U
8vs Stanford13-20L+2.0L57.5U
9@ USC38-35W+3.0W52.5O
10vs Utah38-20W+7.5W54O
11vs UCLA31-28W-11.5L64.5U
12@ Oregon29-31L+3.5W64U
13@ Arizona41-40W-1.5L66O
16@ Fresno State20-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off86thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off67thPass Def48thRush Def28thRed Zone Def46th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06877th+0.04033th
Red Zone-0.00244th+0.02546th
Third Down+0.12867th+0.01652th
No Garbage Time+0.06076th+0.04232th
First Half+0.12690th+0.09717th
Second Half+0.00447th-0.01658th
Early Downs+0.06176th+0.04425th
Passing Downs+0.02960th+0.03248th
Standard Downs+0.08686th+0.04428th
Goal to Go-0.01736th+0.01961th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.2%Rush 55.8%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
19.9%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
416.7
Pts/Drive
2.35
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizona StateOpponents
Scoring
Points389332
Points / Game29.925.5
First Downs
Total279292
Rushing127129
Passing131137
Penalty2126
Rushing
Attempts502513
Yards2,3922,217
Yards / Carry4.84.3
Yards / Game184.0170.5
Touchdowns2617
Passing
Attempts397408
Completions247246
Completion %62.2%60.3%
Yards3,0253,040
Yards / Attempt7.67.5
Touchdowns2020
Interceptions712
Passer Rating139.32133.18
Total Offense
Plays899921
Yards5,4175,257
Yards / Play6.05.7
Yards / Game416.7404.4
Punt Returns
Returns2220
Yards227271
Average10.313.6
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns2923
Yards563514
Average19.422.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5962
Yards2,5862,662
Average43.842.9
Interception Returns
Returns127
Yards201104
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1717
Lost49
Penalties
Penalties7975
Yards699692
Yards / Game53.853.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3130:29
Third Downs
Attempts180185
Conversions7577
Conversion %41.7%41.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1714
Conversions139
Conversion %76.5%64.3%
Red Zone
Trips4945
Scores (TD + FG)4339
Score %87.8%86.7%
Touchdowns2926
TD %59.2%57.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2220
Made1817
Pct81.8%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4537
Made4537
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →