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TULN
Tulane
Green WaveBalancedAmerican Conference11-3#53 (+3.82)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
61· COverall
Offense
56· CRating
56· CPer play
73· BConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
34· DPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.015
Defensive EPA/play
+0.020
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.005
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.118
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.92
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#18
AP 35 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#50
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#71
model 18 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tulane ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense49th
Opp-adjusted defense59th
Offensive EPA/play57th
Defensive EPA/play35th
Offensive success rate76th
Explosiveness62th
Defensive havoc71th
Points per drive64th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3992UNLV2023OA +0.047 / -0.015similar: rushing offense, run defense, passing offense3973Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3834Marshall2025OA +0.006 / -0.022similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3815Louisiana2023OA +0.073 / -0.059similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense375
2025 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Northwestern | 23-3 | W | -5.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 2 | @ South Alabama | 33-31 | W | -13.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 3 | vs Duke | 34-27 | W | -1.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Ole Miss | 10-45 | L | +22.0 | L | 42.25 | O |
| 5 | @ Tulsa | 31-14 | W | -16.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 7 | vs East Carolina | 26-19 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Army | 24-17 | W | -10.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 10 | @ UTSA | 26-48 | L | +3.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 11 | @ Memphis | 38-32 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Florida Atlantic | 35-24 | W | -18.5 | L | 64.25 | U |
| 13 | @ Temple | 37-13 | W | -13.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Charlotte | 27-0 | W | -30.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 15 | vs North Texas | 34-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 17 | @ Ole Miss | 10-41 | L | +20.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS5-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.018 | 61th | +0.007 | 41th |
| Red Zone | -0.080 | 33th | -0.031 | 54th |
| Third Down | +0.069 | 47th | +0.105 | 41th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.023 | 59th | +0.017 | 35th |
| First Half | +0.127 | 85th | -0.028 | 54th |
| Second Half | -0.101 | 13th | +0.041 | 31th |
| Early Downs | +0.029 | 66th | -0.030 | 56th |
| Passing Downs | +0.069 | 70th | +0.040 | 30th |
| Standard Downs | -0.006 | 44th | -0.007 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | -0.224 | 15th | -0.112 | 64th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.2%Rush 54.8%
Havoc/Game
13.6
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
411.4
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
42.1%
3&Out%
19.3%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 14 games — Tulane vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tulane | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 388 | 335 |
| Points / Game | 27.7 | 23.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 307 | 310 |
| Rushing | 117 | 116 |
| Passing | 165 | 162 |
| Penalty | 25 | 32 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 515 | 480 |
| Yards | 2,328 | 1,716 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 166.3 | 122.6 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 425 | 478 |
| Completions | 262 | 323 |
| Completion % | 61.6% | 67.6% |
| Yards | 3,432 | 3,663 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 139.22 | 141.55 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 940 | 958 |
| Yards | 5,760 | 5,379 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 411.4 | 384.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 17 |
| Yards | 61 | 143 |
| Average | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 6 |
| Yards | 596 | 89 |
| Average | 22.9 | 14.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 54 |
| Yards | 2,267 | 2,270 |
| Average | 46.3 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 9 |
| Yards | 86 | 83 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 20 |
| Lost | 8 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 96 | 77 |
| Yards | 895 | 680 |
| Yards / Game | 63.9 | 48.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:52 | 29:04 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 187 |
| Conversions | 77 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 42.1% | 39.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 33 |
| Conversions | 12 | 19 |
| Conversion % | 52.2% | 57.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 56 | 50 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 40 |
| Score % | 89.3% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 31 |
| TD % | 55.4% | 62.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 20 |
| Made | 25 | 16 |
| Pct | 89.3% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 29 |
| Made | 41 | 29 |
| Pct | 97.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 12 |
| Made | 1 | 6 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.