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UNLV
UNLV
RebelsBalancedMountain West Conference9-5#33 (+4.51)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
76· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
61· CPer play
38· DConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
37· DRating
43· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.038
Defensive EPA/play
+0.023
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.086
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.70
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#33
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#68
model 35 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 43 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where UNLV ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense70th
Opp-adjusted defense43th
Offensive EPA/play61th
Defensive EPA/play43th
Offensive success rate43th
Explosiveness62th
Defensive havoc34th
Points per drive83th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: rushing offense, run defense, passing offense3962Memphis2020OA +0.003 / -0.004similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3713Fresno State2023OA +0.055 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3604Louisville2026OA +0.042 / -0.002similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, rushing offense3585Florida International2017OA -0.036 / -0.111similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate349
2023 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Bryant | 44-14 | W | -16.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Michigan | 7-35 | L | +38.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Vanderbilt | 40-37 | W | +4.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 4 | @ UTEP | 45-28 | W | -2.5 | W | 50 | O |
| 5 | vs Hawai'i | 44-20 | W | -11.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Nevada | 45-27 | W | -9.0 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Colorado State | 25-23 | W | -7.5 | L | 64 | U |
| 9 | @ Fresno State | 24-31 | L | +7.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 10 | @ New Mexico | 56-14 | W | -5.5 | W | 50.75 | U |
| 11 | vs Wyoming | 34-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Air Force | 31-27 | W | +3.0 | W | 47 | O |
| 13 | vs San José State | 31-37 | L | -3.0 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Boise State | 20-44 | L | +2.5 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Kansas | 36-49 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.039 | 61th | +0.051 | 30th |
| Red Zone | +0.211 | 89th | +0.008 | 47th |
| Third Down | +0.207 | 50th | +0.055 | 79th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.052 | 65th | +0.038 | 37th |
| First Half | +0.004 | 47th | +0.017 | 47th |
| Second Half | +0.068 | 75th | +0.092 | 21th |
| Early Downs | -0.050 | 43th | +0.093 | 7th |
| Passing Downs | +0.190 | 82th | -0.007 | 66th |
| Standard Downs | -0.045 | 35th | +0.083 | 15th |
| Goal to Go | +0.179 | 81th | -0.113 | 68th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 42.9%Rush 57.1%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
412.7
Pts/Drive
2.70
3rd Down%
49.3%
3&Out%
20.6%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 14 games — UNLV vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | UNLV | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 482 | 400 |
| Points / Game | 34.4 | 28.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 287 | 281 |
| Rushing | 115 | 112 |
| Passing | 144 | 139 |
| Penalty | 28 | 30 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 538 | 529 |
| Yards | 2,429 | 2,265 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 173.5 | 161.8 |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 404 | 399 |
| Completions | 251 | 245 |
| Completion % | 62.1% | 61.4% |
| Yards | 3,349 | 3,552 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 8.9 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 26 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 139.71 | 149.16 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 942 | 928 |
| Yards | 5,778 | 5,817 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 412.7 | 415.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 12 |
| Yards | 309 | 132 |
| Average | 17.2 | 11.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 42 | 47 |
| Yards | 1,001 | 823 |
| Average | 23.8 | 17.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 63 |
| Yards | 2,400 | 2,551 |
| Average | 47.1 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 12 |
| Yards | 110 | 146 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 21 |
| Lost | 7 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 96 | 80 |
| Yards | 865 | 774 |
| Yards / Game | 61.8 | 55.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:13 | 31:44 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 205 | 188 |
| Conversions | 101 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 49.3% | 36.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 22 |
| Conversions | 9 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 45.0% | 54.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 58 | 50 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 54 | 42 |
| Score % | 93.1% | 84.0% |
| Touchdowns | 38 | 29 |
| TD % | 65.5% | 58.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 21 |
| Made | 26 | 17 |
| Pct | 89.7% | 81.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 56 | 49 |
| Made | 56 | 49 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.