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FRES
Fresno State
BulldogsPass-HeavyPac-12 Conference9-4#58 (+1.31)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
57· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
76· BPer play
48· CConsistency
45· CBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
45· CPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.055
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.078
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.048
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#58
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#21
market 37 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 18 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense74th
Opp-adjusted defense41th
Offensive EPA/play76th
Defensive EPA/play45th
Offensive success rate38th
Explosiveness45th
Defensive havoc48th
Points per drive78th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: pass defense, turnover rate, havoc rate3862Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: run defense, pass defense, rushing offense3713Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3694North Texas2018OA -0.014 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, run defense, passing offense3675Memphis2020OA +0.003 / -0.004similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, defensive EPA365
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Purdue | 39-35 | W | +3.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Eastern Washington | 34-31 | W | -29.0 | L | 63.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Arizona State | 29-0 | W | -3.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Kent State | 53-10 | W | -27.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Nevada | 27-9 | W | -24.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Wyoming | 19-24 | L | -6.0 | L | 44 | U |
| 7 | @ Utah State | 37-32 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs UNLV | 31-24 | W | -7.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 10 | vs Boise State | 37-30 | W | -3.0 | W | 55 | O |
| 11 | @ San José State | 18-42 | L | -1.0 | L | 56 | O |
| 12 | vs New Mexico | 17-25 | L | -23.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | @ San Diego State | 18-33 | L | -5.5 | L | 47 | O |
| 16 | vs New Mexico State | 37-10 | W | +3.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-8
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.049 | 65th | -0.004 | 54th |
| Red Zone | +0.087 | 68th | +0.045 | 34th |
| Third Down | +0.324 | 78th | +0.230 | 35th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.071 | 75th | +0.014 | 48th |
| First Half | +0.075 | 67th | +0.017 | 45th |
| Second Half | +0.025 | 59th | -0.028 | 56th |
| Early Downs | -0.040 | 47th | -0.066 | 64th |
| Passing Downs | +0.105 | 66th | +0.031 | 51th |
| Standard Downs | +0.016 | 61th | -0.024 | 53th |
| Goal to Go | +0.070 | 61th | -0.336 | 90th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 58.6%Rush 41.4%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
387.8
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
47.6%
3&Out%
18.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Fresno State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 396 | 305 |
| Points / Game | 30.5 | 23.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 275 | 268 |
| Rushing | 80 | 120 |
| Passing | 174 | 130 |
| Penalty | 21 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 366 | 499 |
| Yards | 1,372 | 2,160 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 105.5 | 166.2 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 518 | 402 |
| Completions | 337 | 223 |
| Completion % | 65.1% | 55.5% |
| Yards | 3,669 | 2,661 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 138.40 | 118.21 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 884 | 901 |
| Yards | 5,041 | 4,821 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 387.8 | 370.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 8 |
| Yards | 184 | 95 |
| Average | 9.2 | 11.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 37 | 31 |
| Yards | 816 | 649 |
| Average | 22.1 | 20.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 57 |
| Yards | 2,172 | 2,333 |
| Average | 41.8 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 12 |
| Yards | 85 | 182 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 6 | 11 |
| Lost | 2 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 81 |
| Yards | 522 | 688 |
| Yards / Game | 40.2 | 52.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:28 | 30:29 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 187 | 187 |
| Conversions | 89 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 47.6% | 39.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 29 |
| Conversions | 9 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 64.3% | 58.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 47 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 33 |
| Score % | 91.5% | 86.8% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 23 |
| TD % | 59.6% | 60.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 17 |
| Made | 24 | 15 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 88.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 34 |
| Made | 40 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 3 |
| Made | 4 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.